NAHB analysis ties consumer confidence on "plans to buy" with home price trends.

Here's a look from National Association of Home Builders economics analysis Jing Fu at latest consumer confidence data prints from the Conference Board, which did a 180 directionally, and suggest a spending lift among households ahead.

Fu's analysis ties directional improvement in the confidence measures to overall GDP spending, with which a strong correlation is shown. Too, though, Fu looks at the respondent base's indications as regards their plans to buy a resale home in the near future. Here's the take-away:

The trends in the shares of respondents planning to buy a lived-in home within six months and the growth rate of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (the dash lines) are very similar. When there is high demand for housing house price appreciation accelerates; when there is lower demand for housing house price appreciation decelerates.

Read more >