Calculated Risk economist Bill McBride looks at quarterly trends in framing lumber prices, which seem to be gravity-bound thanks to an under-demand and oversupply in China.
The downward trend is slightly mystifying if you only look at domestic activity. What's below the surface here is that the dramatic pick-up in starts is primarily in the multifamily development area, which doesn't tend to use as much framing lumber as single-family. McBride writes:
Right now Random Lengths prices are down about 15% from a year ago, and CME futures are down around 26% year-over-year.