The economic roller-coaster ride that is China has got the naysayers naysaying, the predictors predicting, and the financial observers and gadflies observing and gadflying up a storm.
Here, from Fortune's Alan Murray though, is a breath of fresh air of sound and reasonable weighing of the pluses and minuses of the moment. They seem to even out for this year. Beyond that, however, is a crapshoot. Murray writes:
The likelihood that Fed Chief Janet Yellen, a notorious dove, will raise interest rates too rapidly this year are small.
But if history is your guide, it’s time to prepare. The odds of a recession in 2016 may be less than 50%, but not by much. And in 2017, the odds shift.