We asked Hanley Wood chief economist Jonathan Smoke to riff metric on noteworthy similarities and contrasts between Super Bowl 47's two competing cities. Here's his pre-game low-down, housing style.
Baltimore starts the year with its current economic condition slightly better than San Francisco. The Baltimore MSA’s unemployment rate is slightly ahead of the US average at 7.5%, whereas San Francisco’s unemployment rate is slightly worse than the US at 8%. Advantage Baltimore
Forecasted 2013 Economics
While both markets are forecasted by Moody’s Analytics to see improvement in factors that have an impact on housing, San Francisco is expected to see greater improvement in key metrics like unemployment. As a result, San Francisco’s housing demand should benefit from improving consumer confidence. Advantage San Francisco
Both markets are experiencing positive net migration, population growth, and household growth, but San Francisco wins through greater 2013 expected growth in households, which will provide a stronger positive base for increases in rents and home prices relative to Baltimore. Advantage San Francisco
Home Sales Recovery
Through the 12 months ending in November 2012, Baltimore was still 40% off the total closings volume it experienced in 2007. San Francisco saw huge gains in total home sales in 2012, so much so that the market saw more home closings than in 2007. Advantage San Francisco
Home Price Recovery
But from a pricing perspective, the San Francisco market does not look so recovered. Comparing median home prices for existing home closings in the third quarter of 2012 to the same quarter in 2007, prices remain off by 1/3 in San Francisco. Baltimore ended the third quarter of 2012 only off 7% from the same quarter in 2007. Advantage Baltimore
Home Price Forecast
Both markets saw price gains in 2012 and both are forecasted for improvement in 2013. Tie
Volume of Distress
REO Sales peaked in the San Francisco market at 33% in 2011 and fell to 22% of all home closings in 2012. In Baltimore, REO’s peaked at 24% in 2011 but fell all the way to 12% in 2012. The diminished pressure in Baltimore improves the likelihood of price increases and corresponding consumer confidence in buying homes. Advantage Baltimore
Total Starts Size and Growth
Even though San Francisco is a larger market by population and households, the two markets are similar sized construction markets by total starts. San Francisco had the slight edge in 2012 due primarily to multifamily but Baltimore has a stronger forecast for 2013. Tie
San Francisco has more of the key households that are likely to do remodeling projects since it’s a larger market and 46% of the households are Family Life, Elite, Active Adult Feature & Location, and Active Adult Elite. Baltimore is smaller and only 19% of its households fit the key consumer groups. But, Baltimore’s remodeling market is only down 13% off its peak levels and should see strong growth in 2013. San Francisco is down 23% and will see weaker growth in 2013 as the volume of investors in the market purchasing foreclosed homes is limiting the amount of remodeling projects that would typically be seen with such a high level of home sales. Advantage Baltimore
The markets look very well matched so if football follows housing, it should be an entertaining Super Bowl. Based on the comparison across all of these key housing conditions and forecasts, the slight edge goes to Baltimore—victory on the last possession.
Using this same data to look at all NFL markets, Dallas, Houston, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington are the best bets to make the playoffs next year.