During the NAHB's Fall Economic Forecast Conference, Moody's Economy.com economist Mark Zandi predicted home prices nationally will fall another 5% to 10% through the first half of 2010. Big Builder Online recently surveyed its readers on where they stand on prices.
The majority of respondents--77.1%--said they think national home prices still have further to fall. Only 14.3% said prices wouldn't fall any further, with 8.6% on the fence.
"I think a new wave of foreclosures in both residential and commercial will pull new home prices down," noted one respondent.
Almost half of the respondents were in Zandi's camp, predicting prices will fall 5% to 10% in the first half of 2010. However, 34.3% of respondents said prices will drop only 0% to 5%, 5.7% said they think prices will drop 10% to 15%, and 8.6% said they believe prices have stabilized.
Almost half of the respondents--45.7%--said they thought their local market pricing trends will be better than the national trend. However, 31.4% said they believe their local pricing will be worse than the national numbers, and the remaining 22.9% of respondents said they believe their local pricing will reflect national numbers.
Short sales and foreclosures are the primary driver of price declines, according to 74.3% of respondents. Respondents are attributing declines to other drivers as well: too much existing home inventory (14.3%) and builders' ability to bring less expensive, smaller homes to market (8.6%).