Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ:FISV) on Monday said its quarterly analysis of home prices in the markets not covered by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that single-family home prices rose an average of 3.6% during this year's second quarter when compared to the same period last year. It noted, however, that the gain was driven by strong increases in California and Washington D.C. while prices fell in 70% of the 384 metro areas measured. And it forecast, along with Moody's Economy.com, a double-dip in home prices in most if not all markets by the end of next summer.

The Fiserv Case-Shiller Indices predict that home prices will fall another 7.1% over the next 12 months, with the steepest declines continuing to come from the most overbuilt and formerly overheated markets. From the second quarter of 2010 through the second quarter of 2011, average home prices in Nevada, Arizona and Florida are projected to decline 12.4%, 11.5% and 9.4%, respectively. Fiserv is also projecting that home prices are projected to decline 12.7% in heretofore strong Washington, D.C.

"Some of the largest declines in prices will occur in markets that had strong spring and summer 2010 price increases," said David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv. "This is because the home buyer tax credit delayed the correction in home prices that is necessary to return housing affordability to its pre-bubble levels."

"Many of the metro areas that were fortunate enough to have a spring and summer bounce will experience double-dip price declines. If there are no downside surprises for the economy or the housing and mortgage markets, home prices should start to stabilize at the end of 2011," added Stiff.

Fiserv used Phoenix as an example. Price increased 5.5% from the 2009 second quarter to the 2010 second quarter but are expected to fall by 16% over the next four quarters ending in second quarter 2011. With few exceptions, the first, and most significant declines, occurred between the peak of the housing bubble and the summer of 2009, with tax credit induced bounces happening between the summers of 2009 and 2010.

Nationally, Fiserv said, the median U.S. home price was $177,000 at second quarter's end. The median monthly mortgage payment in the 2010 second-quarter rose to 14% of median family income, an increase of 1% over the first quarter of 2010.

The Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes are based on data from Case Shiller supplemented with data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Fiserv put out the following forecast for selected markets:

Metro / Population (2009) / Change in Prices(2007:Q2 to 2010:Q2) / Change (2009:Q2 to 2010:Q2) / Forecast Change (2010:Q2 to 2011:Q2)

United States 307,006,550 -24.7% 3.6% -7.1%

Austin, TX 1,705,080 3.9% -0.8% -0.6%

Baltimore, MD 2,690,890 -16.8% 0.6% -2.8%

Columbus, OH 1,801,850 -5.1% 2.7% -3.6%

Fort Worth, TX 2,121,230 1.9% -2.2% -0.9%

Indianapolis, IN 1,743,660 -2.4% -1.5% -2.5%

Jacksonville, FL 1,328,140 -32.1% -4.5% -6.4%

Kansas City, MO 2,067,590 -5.6% -3.2% -1.6%

Louisville, KY 1,258,580 -1.2% -2.3% -0.4%

Milwaukee, WI 1,559,670 -9.8% 1.5% -2.4%

Nashville, TN 1,582,260 -6.9% -0.6% -2.2%

New Orleans, LA 1,189,980 -7.5% -5.6% -3.9%

Orlando, FL 2,082,420 -47.1% -3.3% -13.4%

Philadelphia, PA 4,012,570 -6.3% 0.4% -3.0%

Raleigh, NC 1,125,830 -0.6% -3.2% -0.4%

Sacramento, CA 2,127,360 -40.2% 2.3% -9.6%

Salt Lake City, UT 1,130,290 -14.0% -7.7% -3.5%

San Antonio, TX 2,072,130 -0.1% -3.6% -1.1%

San Jose, CA 1,839,700 -26.1% 18.8% -11.7%

St. Louis, MO 2,852,910 -4.8% 0.2% -2.4%

Tucson, AZ 1,020,200 -31.0% -3.3% -4.2%