graph in a paper with wooden houses
adrian neil brockwell graph in a paper with wooden houses

Zillow editor Cory Hopkins reports that a panel of more than 100 economists in the Q2 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey predicts that home values will be up 4% year-over-year at the end of 2016, but only a win from Ohio Governor John Kasich or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will set home values on a favorable track. On the other hand, home values will take a hit if New York businessman Donald Trump, Sen. Bernie Sanders or Sen. Ted Cruz is elected President in 2016.

Forty five percent of panelists said a Trump presidency would negatively impact their expectations for future home value growth, compared to 33% who believe the election of Hillary Clinton would have a somewhat or very positive effect on their home value forecast.

Panelists were also asked to evaluate their expectations for the future of housing finance reform and their overall economic outlook over the next few years depending on which of the presidential candidates were to be elected. A majority of those with an opinion (59 percent) said their overall economic outlook would be very or somewhat negatively impacted if Trump were to win the presidency, while 48 percent said their expectations for housing finance reform would be somewhat or very negatively impacted.

So which candidate do panelists think would have the best impact on the housing market?

The relatively centrist views of Ohio Governor John Kasich, and his experience as House Budget Committee Chairman under President Bill Clinton during the 1990s economic boom, were most likely to brighten panelists’ expectations. Of those with an opinion, only 3 percent of panelists said a Kasich election would negatively impact their home value forecast. Just 7 percent said their expectations for housing finance reform would be negatively impacted by Kasich, and only 5 percent said their overall economic outlook would be dented by his election.

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