Here's how CityView president Joel Shine describes the genesis of this image: "I was sitting around one day earlier this year trying to explain what I do to some potential partners," he says. "I sketched out a concept piece and then asked my friend Vala Legan to redraw and clean it up a little." Voila–art!
Clearly, the helping winds of economic growth, positive job formation trends, consumer confidence, and demographics have continued to buoy the broader economy, even as those funda mental forces confound housing industry leaders.
Equally, though, the hazards pushing up from below the surface–partly of home builders' own doing and partly due to economic forces that cannot be avoided or controlled–bedevil the present and imperil operators in the months ahead.
For those who invest in new housing, the game has got to feel like a near-term crapshoot. Since the vertical drop in sales volumes is glacially moving new- and existing-home prices downward, the metrics for real estate returns either at the project or at the fund level have gone somewhat haywire.
While there's no doubt housing and the new-home economy will cycle back to a norm and heat up again in the future, there is considerable question as to how many of the industry sector's current players will be around in their present incarnation. As household growth and global economic expansion continue to produce an algorithmic need for new housing, many of the markets that are most sorely afflicted by oversupply and affordability issues will resume their role as America's hottest markets once equilibrium on inventory and price is restored.
CitiView, based in Los Angeles, Calif., has emerged as one of the nation's leading finance organizations within the workforce housing industry. The company promises debt, equity, and a full suite of services for home builders and developers at the project level.
Shine, a third-generation home builder, teamed up with former HUD secretary Henry Cisneros in 2001 to spearhead CityView's efforts. CityView is active in 12 states and has brought more than 7,000 units under development. When Big Builder asked to publish his graphic analysis of the slowdown, Shine's response was simple: "Help yourself!" Enjoy.
What's more, if you have any infographic analyses you feel might help your colleagues understand and course-correct for current market conditions, we'd be grateful to publish them. Please e-mail them, in PowerPoint or JPEG format, to email@example.com.