Consumers expect home prices to drop 3.11% in the next 12 months, a -3% decrease from May's reading of 3.21%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's June Survey of Consumer Expectations, released Monday.
Home price expectations are trending down for the first time since the turnaround in December, and less consumers expect that the rate of inflation will increase in the coming year, with a median expected inflation rate of 3.54% in June compared to May's 2.62%.
By region, consumers in the South and West expect home prices to decrease in the coming year with both regions reporting that consumers expect home prices to go down 3.20%, a -7.51% and -12.80% decline from May's readings, respectively. This month's reading of the Northeast is unchanged from May at 3.0%, following the trend seen the past four months. The only region to see an increase in home price expectations in June was the Midwest, where consumers expect a 3.12% increase in prices, a 4% increase from May's 3.00%.
Older buyers (over age 60) continue to anticipate a volatile home market ahead, with expectations rising 12.67% in June to 4.00%, an upward trend seen for the past six months. Consumers under 40 years-old and between 40-60 years-old both expect home prices to decline, following an irregular uptick in May that stood in contrast to the nearly unanimous perception that prices would decline in previous months.
The median consumer expectation for household income growth rebounded in June to 2.79%, up from May's decline to 2.39% following four months of increases. June's rebound has narrowed the gap between median household income growth and expected home price change.
The New York Fed interviews approximately 1,200 people from a rolling panel each month for the Survey of Consumer Expectations, and each respondent participates in the survey for up to a year. Read more about the June survey results here >>