• Quarterly new home starts up 28% in 2Q16
  • Quarterly closings up 73% from 1Q16
  • Total inventory for new single-family detached homes increased 28%
  • Under construction inventory was up 40% over 2Q15
  • Lot deliveries in the first half of 2016 down 14% compared to last year

According to Metrostudy’s 2Q16 lot-by-lot survey of subdivisions in the Boise/Treasure Valley housing market, there were a total of 1,352 new home starts (attached and detached) during 2Q16, up 10% YoY and 28% higher than 1Q16. New home closings in 2Q16 totaled 1,201, up 21% from last year and a 73% increase from last quarter. Annual new home starts as of 2Q16 totaled 4,285, 25% higher than the same period last year. Annual new closings numbered 3,844, a 21% increase YoY.

While we are anticipating production in the second half of 2016 to level off some, the market should have one of the strongest years since prior to the recession.

Ada County started 1,033 new homes during 2Q16, a 7% increase over last year. Annual starts totaled 3,178, a 24% increase over last year, and continue to gain momentum. Annual closings also increased 23% over last year for a total of 2,835. Canyon County started 312 new homes during 2Q16, a 20% increase over 2Q15. Annual starts increased 27% over the past twelve months for a total of 1,083 as of 2Q16. Annual new home closings as of 2Q16 totaled 995, a 20% increase YoY.

“Rising home prices continue to put the squeeze on the ability for buyers to qualify for a mortgage,” said Eric Allen, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Utah/Idaho market. “The median price for a new home in Ada County was $297,400 this quarter, 4% higher than last year and 0.1% above last quarter. The median new home price in Canyon County was $193,700, up 3% over last year and nearly unchanged from last quarter.”

Annual Starts by Price Range - Attached/Detached

As of June 2016, total new home inventory for Single Family Detached homes totaled 2,131, an increase of 28% over 2Q15 and a 7.1 month supply, up from 6.6 months recorded last year. Under construction inventory was 1,482, up 40% over 2Q15, and a 4.9 month supply. Finished vacant home inventory increased 2% from last year for a total of 544 homes, but decreased by 5% from last quarter. This is a 1.8 month supply, down from 2.1 months recorded last year at this time. The rapid increase in under construction inventory has some in the industry a little worried, however finished vacant inventory remains well below equilibrium levels. There are currently 199 attached homes/units in inventory, which is a 9.7-month supply. Of this, 170 are under construction, an 8.3 month supply and 26 are finished vacant units, which is a 1.3 month supply. Ada County currently has a 7.8 month supply of new home inventory on the ground. Of this, 448 are finished and vacant, a 1.9 month supply, with 1,303 under construction, which is a 5.5 month supply. Canyon County has a 5.7 month supply of new home inventory, of which, 337 are under construction, a 4.1 month supply, and 119 are finished and vacant, which is a 1.4 month supply.

There were 3,464 new lots delivered to the Boise / Treasure Valley market over the past year, which is 7% less than last year at this time. Year to date deliveries are 1,194, down 14% compared to the first half of 2015. Builders have started approximately 821 more homes than lots delivered in the past year, which is causing the lot supply to tighten. There are currently 4,623 vacant developed lots (VDL) in Ada County, which is down 5% from last year. Currently, this translates to a 17.5 month supply, down from 22.9 months in 2Q15. Vacant developed lot inventory in Canyon County is down 15% from last year to 2,940, which translates to a 32.6 month supply, down from 48.8 months last year.

“The first half of 2016 has proven better than many expected, despite the many pressures both globally and nationally,” said Allen. “The Boise/Treasure Valley market is experiencing rapid growth from many out of state home buyers, which is expected to continue, allowing the local housing market and economy to expand. While we are anticipating production in the second half of 2016 to level off some, the market should have one of the strongest years since prior to the recession.”

For further analysis of the Boise/Treasure Valley market, reach out to regional director Eric Allen: eallen@metrostudy.com