Finalists in the bidding for the vaunted 200-acre California coastal property in Orange County known as Marblehead Coastal have been winnowed to a single home builder in negotiations with seller Lehman Brothers Holdings and its representative, Land Advisors Organization.

Who wins? And is the winner a money-maker?

We're hearing that the final sale price for the parcel, which maps to 308 entitled home properties in one of the highest-profile deals still to be done in that part of California, could go for a range between $230 million and $235 million, or from $700,000 to $770,000 per building lot.

This OC Housing Newspiece raises the question of whether and how a home builder might market the new-home community profitably, even at that exorbitant per-lot price.

About a month ago, the process called for final bids, and resulted in a short-list of potential buyers that included a Brookfield Residential/Standard Pacific Homes joint bid, and separate bids from Taylor Morrison, The New Home Company, and Toll Brothers. Additional bids of substance included an entity-level offer from a one of the large private equity players, as well as one from one of Southern California's up-and-comer home building enterprises, Woodbridge Pacific Group, with backing from financial player Anchorage Capital.

Word is that one final bidder--we're hearing it's Taylor Morrison or Toll Brothers, and most likely the former-- is in a letter-of-agreement stage with the sellers, although final negotiations may continue for a bit.

Learn more about markets featured in this article: Los Angeles, CA.