This month's Pro Teck Valuation Services Home Value Forecast shows favorable real estate trends previously experienced out West have now begun to head East—further evidence of a broad national recovery.
In last month's Home Value Forecast's top-ten ranking, the Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C. CBSA was the only East Coast representative. This month, half of the top ten are from the East.
"Looking deeper into our ranking shows that out of the 35 CBSAs we label 'hot' in our market condition ranking, 18 of them are from eastern states," said Tom O'Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. "Looking at all seven of our market condition ratings shows that almost 70% of the CBSAs we track are in a normal condition or better – further evidence of a broad recovery."
The top-10 CBSAs this month include:
Oak Harbor, WA
Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
Portland-South Portland, ME
Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD
Charleston-North Charleston, SC
In the top ten, inventory is the market driver. The number of homes for sale are down 10-50%, leading to low Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) and high competition for houses that are available. One reason for this is the lack of new housing starts during the crash.
In Richmond, VA for example, for more than ten years before the housing crash, 6,000-8,000 single family homes were added to the community per year – this has been cut in half over the last eight years, leading to today's limited supply. Richmond, along with the rest of the country, has seen an uptick in permits as builders continue to ramp up construction. Balance should return as new construction increases.
Bottom 10 CBSAs this month include:
Three Michigan CBSAs are still having a rough go with foreclosures stifling the recovery. Flint's REO inventory has been high for nine years, dragging down prices and not allowing any substantial appreciation.
Also, Flint's water crisis is not over — unfiltered water still has high levels of lead. Peter Muennig, a professor of public health at Columbia University, has calculated that the 8,000+ Flint children found with elevated blood lead levels since 2014 will lead to $395 million in social costs for those exposed.
The Federal Emergency Declaration issued over Flint expired on August, 14. However, while the water issues are not fully solved, there has been progress. Here's hoping for further progress that brings people and businesses back to the area.