10: Denver, Colo.
Health Index: 76.7
2011 Population Forecast: 2,611,500
2011 Total Building Permit Forecast: 3,801
2012 Total Building Permit Forecast: 7,548
A housing recovery is blooming in Denver, where permit activity is expected to nearly double in 2012. Decent job growth--the metro area is on a pace to add 20,000 jobs this year--will contribute to strong income growth of 3.6% next year. Chase Bank, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and New York Life all recently announced new hiring plans here.
Denver dealt early with the foreclosure crisis and has had a significant decline in new foreclosure filings this year. That's helped keep home prices pretty stable here, even during the housing recession. 2011's median price, $223,100, is only $20,000 below 2006 levels.
Multifamily construction is on the rise in Denver, which can now boast of a vibrant downtown district. Vacancy rates on downtown apartments have dipped below 3%. Also, the city's public transit system, FasTracks, continues to expand, creating new development opportunities all over town.
Visit our Local Markets page for Denver to see more data and analysis.
9: Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, Fla.
Health Index: 79.5
2011 Population Forecast: 697,300
2011 Total Building Permit Forecast: 789
2012 Total Building Permit Forecast: 1,373
Sarasota, a seaside metro area with affordable housing stock, is one of three Florida markets to make our top 20. The area is south of Tampa Bay and North of Fort Myers.
Though permit activity nosedived last year, it regained forward momentum this year on the strength of a pick-up in the multifamily market. Most of the permit activity is in Manatee County, which was up strongly in the first half of the year. Pulte, D.R. Horton, and Lennar are active in Sarasota, along with local powerhouses Neal Communities and Lee Wetherington Homes.
Local real estate agents, whose blogs might have you believe there was never a housing recession here, will be happy to hear that homes prices are expected to rise 2.8% next year on the strength of some of the strongest employment growth on a percentage basis (3.7%) in the country.
Visit our Local Markets page for Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, Fla. to see more data and analysis.
8: Oklahoma City, Okla.
Health Index: 80.5
2011 Population Forecast: 1,242,300
2011 Total Building Permit Forecast: 3,417
2012 Total Building Permit Forecast: 5,284
Oklahoma City, which has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country at 6.1%, managed to add another 9,400 jobs in the last year. Though energy-related companies are the biggest employers, the region has benefited from growth in bioscience and IT sectors as well. A strong job market is projected to lift incomes 3% next year.
Income growth will, in turn, help a housing market that appears poised for a breakout year. Home prices, which dropped earlier this year, appear to have turned the corner; they are forecast to increase 2.6%. The median price of an existing home stood at a very affordable $130,000 this summer. Moody's is calling for a sizeable increase in permit activity, with 80% in single-family.
Oklahoma City's low cost of living continues to attract businesses and new households, which are projected to increase another 1.8% next year. Devon Energy is building a $750 billion, 50-story headquarters building, the largest in Oklahoma City. And the city has a $777 million downtown renovation project underway that includes a new convention center, rail transit, and a 70-acre park.
Visit our Local Markets page for Oklahoma City to see more data and analysis.
7: Colorado Springs, Colo.
Health Index: 80.9
2011 Population Forecast: 642,200
2011 Total Building Permit Forecast: 2,099
2012 Total Building Permit Forecast: 3,639
There's light at the end of the housing market tunnel in Colorado Springs. The three biggest employers here, by far, are military bases, and the fourth biggest is the Air Force Academy. The return of troops from Afghanistan may further stimulate the housing market.
Moody's expects housing metrics to be up across the board in 2012, with home prices climbing 2.6%, employment rising 1.4%, households increasing 1.8%, and median incomes rising a hefty 2.9%.
The market has thrown off mixed signals this year. Existing home sales were up 12% year over year in July. Unsold housing inventory has been dropping and the foreclosure situation is improving. But median home prices fell 5.2% in the year that ended in July.
Visit our Local Markets page for Colorado Springs, to see more data and analysis.
6: Charlottesville, Va.
Health Index: 81.0
2010 Population Forecast: 201,599
2011 Total Building Permit Forecast: 634
2012 Total Building Permit Forecast: 798
Charlottesville isn't a very big housing market, but it's a pretty strong one. Home to the University of Virginia, the region has benefited from some strong household growth in recent years. It continues to attract second-home buyers from Washington, D.C.
Bargains are tough to come by in Charlottesville, where the median home price in August stood just below $300,000, according to local real estate agent reports. Though prices are down so far this year, Moody's expects them to rise 1% next year.
The region has had some strong household growth in recent years, a trend expected to continue through 2012. It will also benefit from strong growth in median income--3.7%.
Visit our Local Markets page for Charlottesville to see more data and analysis.