Recent changes to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) have transformed the way that people think about managing earthquake risk. CoreLogic staffer Maiclaire Bolton takes a look at the changes, which are featured in the most recent version of the UCERF, UCERF3.
One of the updates that was made was to re-evaluate the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in California with the goal of matching them more closely with historical record:
The UCERF3 expert committee aimed to reduce this bulge in the curve, while maintaining the same total seismic moment, or total energy release, for all potential earthquakes. The only way to achieve this was to relax the fault segmentation, which means they had to allow for earthquakes to rupture on multiple segments of faults, or multiple faults, within close proximity of each other.