Florida, much like the nation as a whole, saw tremendous home price appreciation in 2013. And much like the nation, price trends varied by county, submarket and zip code. Deed records were examined to try to determine what effect rising interest rates and “the pause” had on new single-family detached home values late in 2013 and into 2014. Utilizing the new Project Statistics Report available in Metrosearch and looking at the most active County for new home production in each of Metrostudy’s six Florida markets, the chart below was created for detached single-family homes. Measuring 4Q13 prices versus 1Q13 prices, average selling price growth was as follows: Manatee County up 17.2%, Orange County up 15.3%, Lee County up 12.7%, Hillsborough County up 10.6%, St Johns County up 8.2% and Miami-Dade up 2.0%. While the main production county in each market showed positive price appreciation in 2013, we are seeing mixed results in early 2014.
Miami-Dade, St Johns and Hillsborough Counties continued to see increases in average selling prices into 2014 and Lee County was essentially flat. The increase in interest rates may have created a pause in sales, but prices have held up better than volume in these counties. Two counties, Orange and Manatee, showed price declines for deeds recorded and reported through February, 2014.
Job growth, interest rate sensitivity and lot supply/costs will be major factors into 2014 and beyond for Florida new-home volume and new-home prices. The days of the double digit price and volume growth are behind us and local market knowledge becomes more critical.
St Johns County
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Learn more about the Tampa market with Tony Polito at the Housing Leadership Summit this May here: