ATTOM Data Solutions on Wednesday released an analysis showing what the three California housing markets would look like if the state is split into three new states per a proposal that has qualified for the state’s November ballot.
For this analysis, ATTOM looked at home values, price appreciation, sales volume and property taxes along with flood risk and wildfire risk for nearly 7.5 million single family homes statewide, broken down by county into the three new proposed states — Northern California (40 counties); Southern California (12 counties); and California (6 counties).
Counties comprising the proposed Northern California state took in 41% of the current California’s property tax revenue on single family homes in 2017 while accounting for 38% of homes.
Counties comprising the proposed California state took in 27% of the current California’s property tax revenue on single family homes in 2017 while accounting for 25% of the homes.
Conversely, counties comprising the proposed Southern California state account for 37% of the current California’ssingle family homes but took in 32% of the total property tax revenue on those homes in 2017.
Median home prices in the proposed Northern California state are up 120% since the bottom of the market in Q1 2009, while median home prices in the new Southern California are up 106% and median home prices in the new California are up 98% over the same period.
The proposed Northern California state is also outperforming when it comes to home price appreciation over the past year — up 9% compared to 8% in the proposed California and 7% in the proposed Southern California — and the last five years — up 64% compared to 59% in the proposed California and 57% in the proposed Southern California.
First quarter 2018 home sales in the proposed Southern California state are up 59% compared to 10 years ago, in Q1 2008. That compares to a 52% increase in the proposed California state and a 35% increase in the proposed Northern California over the same period.
Single family home sales in the proposed Southern California state also accounted for a disproportionately high share of home sales in Q1 2018 (42%) relative to its share of single family home inventory (37%).
Less than 1% (0.94%) of all single family homes in the proposed California state are in high-risk flood zones compared to 2.26% in the new Southern California and 3.72% in the new Northern California.
Additionally, just over 2% (2.02%) of all single family homes in the proposed California state are in high-risk wildfire zones compared to 7.26% in the new Northern California and 9.38% in the new Southern California.
“The proposed state of Northern California definitely bears a disproportionate share of real estate related flood risk, which makes sense given the terrain and the waterways present there,” said Clifford A. Lipscomb, vice chairman and co-managing director at Greenfield Advisors, a real estate research firm. “In contrast, the data show that the proposed state of Southern California bears the bulk of the risk when it comes to wildfires. The data suggest that Southern Californiahas almost $30 billion more real estate exposure to wildfire risk than the proposed Northern California. California is in a distant third place for both types of risk in terms of real estate.”
