The EPA data may, in fact, underestimate the trend. First, because its focus is limited to new construction and does not include housing created through the rehabilitation or adaptive reuse of existing structures. And second, because its jurisdictional breakdowns oversimplify the distinctions between urban and suburban development. For purposes of the study, Thomas says, fringe developments on exurban farmland ended up being lumped in the same category with high-density, close-in suburbs which, for all intents and purposes, are nodal extensions of the city.
Permit data in the EPA study shows that urban redevelopment continued its upward trajectory through 2007, suggesting there was little loss in momentum, even at the start of the housing bust. “What’s also interesting is that the data stopped before the run-up in gas prices,” McMahon observes. “What we were seeing during the $4 per gallon gas era was that transportation costs were offsetting the cheaper housing prices people found by buying farther out.” Theoretically, that was probably prompting some homeowners to consider moving closer in, he says.
David Goldberg, communications director for Smart Growth America, a national coalition advocating compact growth, agrees. “I think there are deep expectations among Americans that this volatility [in fuel prices] will continue,” he says. “Combine that with an aging population and a drop in household size, and all signs point to a desire for more convenient locations with transportation options.”
“The era of McMansions is over,” McMahon says.
But not everywhere.
Although many urban cores are undeniably in renaissance mode, the EPA analysis also found 13 regions in which infill development increased significantly, but still accounts for less than a quarter of all new residential units. Twelve metro regions saw very little change at all in the distribution of residential permits.
City size, culture, zoning, air quality issues, and public transportation are among the many variables influencing development and land use patterns. Plus, there’s always the issue of funding.
“Even with solid economic fundamentals, many large scale redevelopment projects still require changes in local regulations or public infrastructure investments to be successful,” Thomas noted in the report summary. “For example, transit-oriented development often requires updates to zoning codes, more flexible parking regulations, assistance with land assembly, or improvements to upgrade water, sewer, and local streets. Brownfield properties often need assistance to evaluate contamination and potentially clean up soil and groundwater.”
The Census projects that the U.S. population will expand by 25 million people in the next decade, and that the biggest growth will occur among millennials (ages 19-30) and people over 65. “These groups are still figuring out their preferences,” Thomas says. “It will be interesting to see where they end up.”
Jenny Sullivan is senior editor, design, at BUILDER magazine.