By Bill Wilson, The Wichita Eagle, Kan.

Feb. 9--The residential housing market that emerges from the recession will be much different, according to "Housing in America: The Next Decade," a new research paper by John McIllwain, senior resident fellow at the Urban Land Institute.

But Wichita might not follow the McIllwain blueprint, several industry analysts said. Here's what the future holds, according to the ULI:

-- Although prices are stabilizing in many parts of the country, national prices will fall another 10 percent until they stabilize in the second half of this year or in 2011.

The percentage of Americans owning homes will drop 5 percent this decade, to 62 percent.

Housing appreciation will slow, to between 1 and 2 percent annually.

A growing number of home mortgages are under water, with as many as 40 percent of all loans there by the end of the year.

Housing demand will increase after the recession, a market driven by baby boomers struggling to sell homes, Generation Y renters, immigrants and work force housing.

Gary Walker, residential general manager for J.P. Weigand & Sons, takes issue with the report, especially the forecast decline in home prices.

"I think he's wrong," Walker said. "I think home prices will be about flat this year in most areas of the country, including Wichita."

Steve Wilbur, a broker with United Country Theurer Auction and Realty, agreed.

"But all bets are off if there's a huge bump in aviation worse than what we've seen so far," he said.

What's less clear, Walker said, is where home ownership is headed.

"It depends entirely on what the baby boomers do," he said. "If they decide to rent at independent or assisted living facilities, their numbers going out of the percentage of home ownership could result in such a decline.

"Personally, I think it will remain fairly stable at around 65 or 70 percent."

But Wilbur said he thinks the ownership percentage will drop in Wichita.

"Economics and tighter lending practices," he said. "A lot tighter lending."

Nationwide home appreciation may mimic Wichita, Walker said.

"I agree it will slow," he said. "The exact percentage is hard to predict. Let's say I'd anticipate the number to be more like what Wichita has been, with less drastic rises and falls and more stability. Still a good, solid investment."

"It's always been that way. Homes have always been like a CD here as it comes down to real estate investing: slow and plodding."

Stan Longhofer, director of Wichita State's Center for Real Estate, said he thinks home values will continue to appreciate locally, and home ownership rates will remain steady.

"I don't see a substantial drop in the home ownership rate," he said. "Land values will limit the appreciation, and the long-term expectation is the rate of inflation plus a half or 1 percent."

Walker does expect housing demand to increase in Wichita once hiring resumes.

"There are already some signs of that with FHA loans," he said.

"It's critical that construction loans for builders be more attainable and that homeowner qualifying guidelines return to levels similar to the '90s.

"Obviously, jobs are also a factor. With unemployment running nearly 10 percent, housing is going to be hit. If and when those numbers drop, the housing market will also stabilize, provided financing is available."

Reach Bill Wilson at 316-268-6290 or bwilson@wichitaeagle.com.

-----

To see more of The Wichita Eagle, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.kansas.com.

Copyright (c) 2010, The Wichita Eagle, Kan.

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

A service of YellowBrix, Inc.