Price patterns through August showed positive but flagging momentum. Per an FNC press statement, "While August home prices are up in nearly all the major housing markets tracked by the FNC 30-MSA composite index, Phoenix and Los Angeles began to show first signs of price weakening, where prices were down 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, from the previous month. This softening price trend in Phoenix and Los Angeles--two of the housing market's most important barometers--emerged after a long streak of rapid price accelerations that averaged more than a 2.0% month-over-month increase. Denver, another strong-performing city in the current housing recovery, also recorded a small price drop in August." The best guess as to what's around the next corner is to meld a post-taper talk trend model with a post-shutdown snap-back model and set prices and pace expectations accordingly.

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Learn more about markets featured in this article: Phoenix, AZ, Los Angeles, CA.