When oil prices collapsed in the mid-'80s, a statewide recession forced the Texas economy to hang up their hats. Not wanting to make the same mistake twice, the state diversified and expanded business in the manufacturing and services industries, ensuring that they had a specialized economy to sustain the state when oil prices were in a slump.
Perhaps Texas was so traumatized by this hit to their economy in yesteryear that lawmakers were much more cautious in the coming years. They were left virtually unscathed when the housing bubble burst—Texas was the only economy in the country to not see a plummet in home equity. But why?
REGULATION ON THE RANGE
In late August, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released a study claiming that Texas skirted major home value losses during the financial crisis because of an existing state law that regulated home equity borrowing.
So Texas doesn't have a itchy trigger finger after all.
A constitutional amendment passed in 1997 allowed closed-end home equity loans, stipulating that a home equity loan should be less than 80 percent of a home's total value when added up with the primary mortgage. That's how they stayed above water. But you can read more on that in this HousingWire article.
Back to now (although it might as well be 2006 in Texas). I'm a newbie here, but it just doesn't seem like regulations should be getting all the credit for the Texas market's performance during the housing crisis. They were able to continue to develop.
Construction costs and land costs influence home prices the most. Construction costs (material and labor) ebb and flow, while land is something that is inherent to a state's makeup. Material prices are up, and labor shortages threaten to impede on potential recovery, but Texas appears to be in some kind of vacuum. Texas also has a lot of land underneath their feet.
But development is not the only way that Texas is thriving. They also have multiple markets where people can afford to live, and considering that the national median income has been gradually decreasing in the past decade, that makes Texas super appealing.
The Real Estate Center explained the status of Texas' housing market this way:
Real Estate Center research reveals why Texas dodged a home price bubble in that housing crisis. The research found that what is commonly known as a “home price” bubble was actually a “land price” bubble. With abundant supplies of land and an efficient statewide land acquisition and development process, Texas’ residential real estate market managed to avoid the home price bubble that affected many regions of the United States.
HOME AFFORDABILITY IN MAJOR TEXAS METROS
The Real Estate Center projects that by 2050, the Texas market will demand 10.5 million new housing units to accommodate 30 million new residents. A growth of 30 million people in 30 years would more than double the growth that Texas has seen in the past 30 years.
Everything's bigger in Texas, including the bang for your buck. The data speaks for itself (via Hanley Wood's Metrostudy)
1. FORT WORTH
Median home price: $137,500
Household loan qualification for median income of $46,779: $163, 301
Median home price: $202,300
Household loan qualification for median income of $60,383: $210,792
Median home price: $187,800
Household loan qualification for median income of $55,000: $192,000
4. SAN ANTONIO
Median home price: $176,400
Household loan qualification for median income of $50,115: $174,947
Median home price: $240,000
Household loan qualification for median income of $56,076: $195,756
*calculated at current interest rate of 4.875% for a period of 30 years
Metrostudy sums it up best:
Texas’ recovery has been highly touted and rightfully so. It started notably earlier and notably stronger than any other state, not to mention the nation as a whole. Job growth over the last three years has translated into robust home demand across the state (new, resale, and rental). The strong growth in demand has outpaced the ability to replace new lots, resulting in declining inventory levels. As the holy cross of economics dictates, when supply is tight and demand is up prices strengthen accordingly. Each of the major Texas markets has experienced home price increases, both new and resale, an encouraging trend for the market overall.
- 2050: 30M new residents will demand 10.5M new housing units in Texas: <Tweet This>
- Why Texas was able to dodge the home price bubble: <Tweet This>
- Top 3 most-affordable Texas markets: Fort Worth, Dallas, Houston: <Tweet This>
- Everything's bigger in Texas, including the bang for your buck: <Tweet This>