Recovery in home prices slowed in November but continued a 10-month run of improvement in year-over-year declines, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
The 10-City Index, measuring the largest markets, fell 4.5% in November versus the same month a year ago and declined 0.2% compared to October. The sequential decline compares with flat prices from September to October. The 20-City Index dropped 5.3% year over year and 0.2% sequentially. That index was down 1% September to October. All 20 metro areas showed improvement in annual rates of decline with November's readings compared to October, and four markets, Dallas, Denver, San Diego and San Francisco posted increases compared to November, 2008.
"While we continue to see broad improvement in home prices as measured by the annual rate, the latest data show a far more mixed picture when you look at other details," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P. "Only five of the markets saw price increases in November versus October. What is more interesting is that four of the markets--Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa--posted new low index levels as measured by the past four years. In other words, any gains they might have seen in recent months have been erased and November is now considered their current trough value."
The seasonally adjusted data, which is relatively new to the monthly Case-Shiller report, showed more positive gains, with 14 markets and both composites showing improved prices in November. The adjusted data takes into account the traditional weakness in home prices at that time of year.
Still, Blitzer said, "On balance, while these data do show that home prices are far more stable than they were a year ago, there is no clear sign of a sustained, broad-based recovery."
Average home prices at the end of November were equivalent to those in late 2003. The overall improvement that occurred in 2009 was evident in the peak-to-trough readings through April and through November, respectively, as the decline in the 10-City Index of -33.5% had improved to -30.0% by November and the 20-City went from -32.6% to -29.2%.
Market by market, not seasonally adjusted, Atlanta stood at an index of 109.29, meaning prices have now only 9.29% above what they were in January of 2000, with a 0.8% decline from October to November, down 6.2% from November, 2008. Boston's index was 153.97, down 0.5% from October, and down 0.7% from the prior November. Charlotte was at 118.66, down 0.3% from October and down 5.5% from November of 2008. Chicago's reading was 129.39, with a worst-in-the nation drop of 1.1% sequentially and is -8.5% year-over year. Cleveland, at 104.75, was down 0.2% month to month and down -2.5% on an annual basis. Dallas, at 119.92, was flat with October but up 1.4% from November, 2008. Denver (128.29), fell 0.5% sequentially but was up 0.5% annually. Detroit, at 72.59, remains the nation's most depressed market in terms of its index, and prices fell another 0.7% in November and 13.0% year over year. Las Vegas, at 104.22, remains the hardest hit market in terms of total declines, with another 0.5% loss month to month and a 24.5% drop from November a year prior.
Los Angeles (169.72) improved 0.8% sequentially but was still off 3.5% from last November. Miami (149.08) was flat with October but still down 12.1% from last November. Minneapolis (123.85) was down 0.5% from October and 6.8% from last November. New York (173.24), was among the worst performers with a drop of 1.0% from October and remains 7.1% behind November, 2008. Phoenix (111.96) was up 1.1% from October but remains 14.2% below November of 2008.Portland (150.38) was up 0.3% but was down 7.5% year over year. San Diego (156.06) rose 0.4% and is also up 0.4% from November 2008. San Francisco (136.63) was up 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Seattle (148.56) fell 0.5% month to month and was down on an annual basis. Tampa (139.66) was down 0.4% and 13.2% respectively. And Washington (179.20), fell 0.5% and 0.6%.