<?xml version="1.0" encoding="us-ascii"?><rss version="2.0"><channel><title>Boyce Thompson: Boyce on Building's latest posts</title><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/post.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog</link><lastBuildDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2009 08:20:22 GMT</lastBuildDate><pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:01:00 GMT</pubDate><item><title>October Decline in Housing Starts: No Cause for Worry</title><description><![CDATA[If you believe the tax credit for first-time buyers stimulated housing starts and sales this year, then you shouldn&#39;t be too worried by yesterday&#39;s report that single-family starts fell 6.8 percent in October.

The deadline for buyers to take the credit (November 30) was fast approaching. Builders were intent on selling the homes they had in inventory, rather than starting new ones. They didn&#39;t know for certain whether the tax credit would be extended.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=90460</link><pubDate>Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:01:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Reports of FHA's Demise Greatly Exaggerated</title><description><![CDATA[You hear it all the time in conversation: The federal government has merely transferred the subprime problem from the GSEs to FHA. People ask, &quot;How can the government in good conscience be making mortgages to people and only require 3 percent downpayments, especially in today&#39;s economic environment with rampant job losses?&quot;

Let&#39;s not forget that these are the very economic conditions under which the FHA was designed to operate. The whole idea behind the program was that the government would step into the mortgage market when private lenders weren&#39;t willing to lend, which turns out to be a pretty good description of the situation today. FHA insured half the mortgages made to first-time buyers in the second quarter of this year. There may not have been a housing recovery without the FHA.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=90427</link><pubDate>Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:34:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Home Builders Receive Early Tax Present</title><description><![CDATA[Large and medium-sized home builders received an early holiday gift in the form of the new five-year tax lookback signed into law by President Obama last week. The new law gives builders an additional three years to carry back net operating losses from their 2008 or 2009 tax returns. Companies that have already filed their 2008 returns could file for refunds immediately.

Make no mistake: The home building industry could really use the help. But like all federal tax policy initiatives, this one is far from perfect.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=90304</link><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 12:34:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Why the Senate Did the Right Thing</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=90239</link><pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 09:31:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Early Recovery Evidenced by Some Third-Quarter Earnings Reports</title><description><![CDATA[Look past the headlines about continued losses and you can see clear signs of housing&#39;s nascent recovery in the third-quarter public earnings reports issued within the last two weeks. 

Consider that M.D.C. reported a 53 percent increase in net orders in its third quarter, compared to the previous year. Or that new-home contracts rose 36 percent during the quarter at M/I Homes, even though the company lost $21.1 million. Or that NVR managed to increase its new orders 12.6 percent during the third quarter, despite having 17 fewer communities.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=90182</link><pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:18:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Senate Set to Extend Housing Tax Credit</title><description><![CDATA[According to an AP report late last night, key Senators have agreed to extend the housing tax credit for first-time buyers through April of next year and create a new, smaller credit for repeat buyers. The provision is expected to be attached to a bill extending unemployment insurance that may come up for a vote as early as today.

The House has passed a similar bill extending unemployment insurance that does not include a housing tax credit. But several House leaders have said they support a tax-credit extension. Differences between the bills must be hashed out in a conference committee.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=90107</link><pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 08:48:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Industry Decimation Continues with Whittaker Homes</title><description><![CDATA[If ever there were an industry that understands the notion of creating its own destiny, home building is it. We&#39;ve all watched in awe during the last 15 years as great entreprenurs took the industry by storm, creating millions of jobs, contributing mightily to local economies, and building lasting neighborhoods.

Now we watch in disgust as great companies go out of business, victims of the worst real estate depression since the 1930s. It&#39;s as though everything these great businesses have done is for naught--they&#39;ve been overtaken by insurmountable external events. For many builders, this is just about the worst outcome--the notion that they can&#39;t control their own destiny.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=90057</link><pubDate>Mon, 26 Oct 2009 12:57:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Apartment Market Still Caught in Doldrums</title><description><![CDATA[The single-family home building market appears poised for recovery soon. But it will be at least a year before any meaningful recovery occurs in the multifamily sector of the industry. That was the consensus that emerged from MFE 2009, a conference for apartment executives put on by our sister magazine MFE in Las Vegas last week.

Multifamily production, like single-family construction, is running at very low levels because of excess inventory, both in apartments and in the &quot;shadow&quot; market for single-family rentals. Moreover, depressed rents and high construction costs have led to a big increase in distressed properties largely built in 2006 and 2007. ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=90002</link><pubDate>Thu, 22 Oct 2009 07:28:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Irvine Company Shows the Way</title><description><![CDATA[In a bold move, The Irvine Co. has decided to take on Orange County&#39;s housing recession. It has hired six builders to construct 25 new home plans for a fee. The models are set to open early next year. 

The Irvine Co.&#39;s decision announced earlier this week to, in effect, become a builder on its own massive, 798-acre land holdings, could be read many ways. Many local builders can&#39;t be pleased by the developer&#39;s decision to go vertical, paying its builder partners a fee and keeping the profits for itself. But it wasn&#39;t like Orange County&#39;s private builders were in a position to get bank financing for new deals.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89725</link><pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:52:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Pulte Embraces LEED for Homes in Las Vegas</title><description><![CDATA[I must admit to mild surprise when I rounded the corner in the Summerlin master plan in Vegas this week and saw big green banners heralding Pulte&#39;s Villa Trieste as the first Leed for Homes platinum community in Las Vegas. Here&#39;s a builder who put aside the debate about whether to go green and simply seized the day.

Pulte&#39;s Las Vegas division, which has been building super energy efficient homes for many years, found that the leap to LEED platinum wasn&#39;t that treacherous. By making it, Pulte put some big distance between itself and other builders touting Energy Star Homes. Plus, LEED gives points for green features--water savings, indoor air quality, toxic materials, and diverting waste from the landfill.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89862</link><pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2009 09:41:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Shea Develops Contemporary Homes for Young Buyers</title><description><![CDATA[The Dixie Chicks had a chart-topper with the Gen-X anthem, &quot;Wide Open Spaces.&quot; Now Shea Homes hopes to have a big hit with its &quot;Spaces&quot; series of contemporary homes with open floor plans aimed at younger buyers.

A private company, Shea Homes hasn&#39;t put out a press release on Spaces, which, if successful, could no doubt become a new brand for the company. The new series of contemporary homes is only available in two California locations so far, but early indications are that it is doing well, considering the poor overall market conditions.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89799</link><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2009 12:34:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Economic Recovery Fails to Produce a Housing Recovery--So Far</title><description><![CDATA[When we updated our housing forecast story in July, most housing economists linked a housing recovery to a recovery in the general economy. Prevailing opinion was that once the overall economy comes back, consumer confidence would improve and people would start buying homes again. Several economists pegged the fall as the start of the housing recovery.

This hasn&#39;t happened, of course. Once again, the unprecedented circumstances of this housing recession makes forecasting near impossible. The $8000 tax credit for first-time buyers definitely had a stimulative effect on the market that is now wearing off. In its place, the undertoe of foreclosures, a lack of readily available capital, and spiralling joblessness are pulling the industry backward.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89741</link><pubDate>Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:16:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Obama Administration Leans Toward Extending Housing Tax Credit</title><description><![CDATA[Worried about what&#39;s shaping up as a very fragile housing recovery, several White House officials said yesterday that the administration is leaning toward asking Congress to extend the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers into next year, though a final decision apparently hasn&#39;t been made.

The pronouncements came as several major newspapers, in a sort of populist uprising, argued in editorials that the tax credit, which has cost the government billions more than expected, should be allowed to expire. Beside its cost, the main argument against extending the credit is that many of the households that used it would have bought homes anyway.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89655</link><pubDate>Mon, 05 Oct 2009 21:23:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Impending Foreclosures Cast Shadow Over Housing Recovery</title><description><![CDATA[Dozens of postings have hit the Internet within the last week about a shadow inventory of potential foreclosures that could delay any meaningful housing recovery. The more tantalizing of the reports include assertions that banks are deliberately holding back on foreclosures so that they don&#39;t flood the market with low-priced resales, which would only lower the prices of homes they are trying to sell. 

Adding fuel to the fire, the Amherst Securities Group released a report estimating that there&#39;s a shadow inventory of 7 million homes that are either in foreclosure or destined to default. Amherst analyzed how often borrowers who miss one, two, or three payments on their mortgage are likely to recover, or eventually lose possession of their home. More often than not, borrowers who miss a payment on their home wind up losing it.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89586</link><pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2009 11:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Credit Advantage: Public Builders</title><description><![CDATA[The housing &quot;recovery&quot; is shaping up as a tale of two industries. On one side, you have public companies flush with large war chests who have been in the credit market of late floating new debt issues to fund operations. On the other, you have private companies, who have been banging their heads against the wall trying to get money from banks to fund new construction. Countless builders have the same story to tell about banks that aren&#39;t willing to lend even when they have sold a home. 

The same drama, of course, is playing out in every industry in this country. But nowhere is the dichotomy more pronounced than in home building, with its requirements for huge capital outlays and slippery economic footing. As suspected, recovery, if and when it materializes, will come to public and private home builders unevenly.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89478</link><pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:44:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Mortgage Rates May Rise if Fed Stops Buying MBS</title><description><![CDATA[While the extension of the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers has been getting most of the attention from home builders, the industry has benefited from an arguably even more important federal stimulus this year: the Federal Reserve Board&#39;s program to buy up to $1.45 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and agency debt.

The Fed has already spent more than $740 billion this year to keep money flowing to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the major issuers of mortgage-backed securities. The program is set to expire by year-end. Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan recently estimated that mortgage interest rates might rise 30 to 50 basis points if the Federal Reserve Board stops buying mortgage-backed securities cold turkey on January 1st. ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89304</link><pubDate>Tue, 22 Sep 2009 09:29:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Strong Economic Growth Imperils Tax Credit Extension</title><description><![CDATA[The idea behind the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers was to get the housing market going and jump-start the economy. It looks like it worked. Housing starts and sales have been steadily rising since the first of the year, and some economists now forecast GDP growth for the third quarter on the order of 2 to 4 percent. The economy seems to be peforming so well that Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, recently said the recession is &quot;very likely over.&quot;

This good news, as welcome as it may be, may make it very difficult to get an extension of the tax credit, which is set to expire November 30th. The National Association of Home Builders has been joined by many in the real estate lobby to push for an extension of the credit, which is says has &quot;largely driven&quot; the housing recovery. The National Association of Realtors estimates that about 350,000 sales this year would not have happened without the lure of the tax credit.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89214</link><pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2009 10:25:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Forecast: Better Times Ahead</title><description><![CDATA[After reviewing a slew of national economic slides for a presentation in Sacramento this morning, I reached an inescapable conclusion. We may see some dips in new home starts and sales over the next few months that result in the so-called &quot;W&quot; recovery. But strong underlying economic factors are poised to lift the housing market out of the doldrums over the next year.

The housing industry is about to get a strong push from the overall economy?in many metro markets buoyed by strength in oil and agriculture, it already has. Consumer confidence is finally on the mend. And with the price and mortgage interest rate declines we?ve had, new homes haven?t been this affordable in more than seven years.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=89050</link><pubDate>Tue, 15 Sep 2009 09:36:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Tide Seems to Turn on Impact Fees</title><description><![CDATA[During the home building boom, city after city levied impact fees on builders to pay for streets, sewers, schools, and sundry other items. Now, in a sign of the times, several major jurisdictions have suspended or deleted impact fees to stimulate development.

In one of the boldest moves to date, the City Council in Plano, Texas, last month decided to delete all mention of impact fees in its building code. Impact fees in this former high-growth Dallas suburb weren&#39;t that big, typically between $1,000 and $2,000 per house, depending on how much water they would use. But they could add up to big bucks on large projects.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88982</link><pubDate>Thu, 10 Sep 2009 10:15:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>It's Buyer Beware In This New Land Rush</title><description><![CDATA[Finished lots selling for one half, one third, even one tenth of what they cost during the housing boom? Ready-to-go parcels that can be had for less than the cost to develop them? Can this be true? Is it too good to be true?

Reports are coming in from throughout the country--from Delaware, to Colorado Springs, to the Inland Empire of California--that a new land rush is on as banks, developers, and builders finally let go of decent assets. As BUILDER senior editor John Caulfield reports, builders are not only back in the market for buying land, but in some cases they are bidding it up beyond asking prices. ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88923</link><pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2009 10:24:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>As the Nest Empties, Next Moves Materialize</title><description><![CDATA[They warned me in journalism school about doing a &quot;focus group of one,&quot; about reaching generalized conclusions from one interview. But I can&#39;t resist passing on my thoughts as I became an empty nester this weekend, especially since they mostly confirm what marketers already tell you about this seemingly liberated group.

My first thoughts shifted immediately to having a big party and inviting other recent empty nesters, to celebrate the emptying of the nest, of course. Unfortunately, my crib isn&#39;t exactly party central. It worked fine for having a few families over. But there isn&#39;t enough gathering space to have 10 couples over. The rooms are too segmented.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88793</link><pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:25:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Fulton Homes Wins Battle with Foreclosures</title><description><![CDATA[Prices started at $149,000 when Fulton Homes opened Paradise at Ironwood Crossing in June 2008, about 45 miles east of downtown Phoenix. That was a pretty competitive price for this bedroom community of Energy Star homes, with an aquatic center, 20 parks, and lots of open space with trails. Still, nothing happened. 

Then the financial crisis came along and foreclosures accelerated in the San Tan Valley area. Sales manager Dennis Webb lowered prices to $129,900 to compete with distressed sales. Still, nothing happened.

Then in March 2009, worried about losing the spring selling season, Fulton impaired the land, lowered prices to $106,900, and introduced foreclosure specialists who would help buyers buy either a distressed home or a new one from Fulton. If you can&#39;t beat them, better join them, Webb figured. Newspapers picked up the foreclosure specialist story.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88785</link><pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2009 09:50:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>New Orleans Rebuilds at Its Own Pace</title><description><![CDATA[When our plane pulled into the gate last week at the New Orleans International Airport on time, there was no bridgeway to meet us. &quot;We&#39;ll have to wait for someone to bring it over before we can let you disembark,&quot; the pilot said over the intercom. Then he added dryly, &quot;Welcome to New Orleans.&quot;

Indeed, this is a city that seems to move at its own pace, and that is especially true of the effort to rebuild the city in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, which damaged or wiped out about 150,000 homes. As someone who tends to see the glass half-full rather than half-empty, though, I was impressed with the bustle of construction activity during my visit last week.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88722</link><pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2009 11:10:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Hands-Free House Comes Into Focus</title><description><![CDATA[The new line of cabinets we reported on last week that open with a wave of the hand raises an interesting question: Could you do an entire house with hands-free products? Based on my research, it looks like you could get pretty close, with a little legwork and ingenuity.

You might even be able to find a buyer for the house. Many hands-free products for wet rooms are targeted at people who may be susceptible to the spread of disease. These kinds of products also work for green buyers concerned about wasting water or energy, aging buyers with arthritis, and some handicapped buyers with limited range of motion]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88647</link><pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2009 09:37:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Pulte-Centex Merger Revives Branding Debate</title><description><![CDATA[Pulte&#39;s decision to keep the Centex name for entry-level homes has revived the age-old branding debate in home building circles. Even though research shows home-buying consumers are familiar with only a few high-profile home builder brands, builders continue to go to market with a plethora of sometimes confusing names. You&#39;d think more companies would want to seize the opportunity to create a strong national brand.

We roam this confusing maze every year when compiling our Local Leaders list of the 10 largest builders in the top 50 markets. It&#39;s incredibly common for major national and regional home building companies to go to market under various and sundry names. That&#39;s the way market research companies often capture the data. Unless you have an insider&#39;s knowledge of the business, it&#39;s hard to use the Internet and other tools available to the general public to tie brand names to companies.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88593</link><pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2009 10:21:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Reports Point to Slow Housing Recovery</title><description><![CDATA[Two government reports issued in the last two days show steady improvement in housing metrics. First, builder confidence rose again in August, up one point from July; it&#39;s been rising steadily since the beginning of the year. Second, single-family housing starts edged up 1.7 percent in July. And, in an even more encouraging sign, single-family permits increased in July as well, indicating that builders are fairly bullish about future prospects.

Unfortunately, other broader economic metrics indicate that builders face some strong headwinds. The most recent Senior Officers report from the Federal Reserve Board indicates that banks are tightening credit again. Consumer confidence slipped last month, which rattled the stock market. And builders must still compete with a rising tide of foreclosures, projected by Moody&#39;s economy.com to increase from 1.4 million last year to 1.8 million this year. As we&#39;ve been reporting for several months, the foreclosure problem is spreading into prime mortgages, as people who have lost their jobs struggle to make mortgage payments. Congress and the Obama administration are now talking about ways to fix this problem.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88544</link><pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2009 09:14:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Galveston Cleans up Nicely</title><description><![CDATA[Touring a calm and cleaned up Galveston yesterday, it&#39;s hard to imagine the force with which Hurricane Ike pounded the island a year ago. Winds of more than 110 miles per hour and a 14-foot storm surge combined to damage 75 percent of Galveston&#39;s homes and to destroy many of its businesses.

Most of those businesses have reopened. The restored beaches are filled with vacationers. The big hotels along the Gulf, protected by the city&#39;s legendary seawall, stand resplendent with carefully pruned landscaping, almost as if nothing happened.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88491</link><pubDate>Thu, 13 Aug 2009 09:34:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Why Not Cash for Clunky Homes?</title><description><![CDATA[Here&#39;s an idea--why doesn&#39;t the government extend the popular Cash for Clunkers program to homes? That&#39;s right, let&#39;s create a tax credit program that encourages people to trade in their old energy-guzzling homes for new ones that are often 30 percent or more efficient. The country would be much better off if people lived in homes that didn&#39;t leak heat like sieves and require tons of electricity to power outdated appliances.

As beneficial as such a program might be to the home building industry, which could use the boost, it will never see the light of day. In fact, it isn&#39;t even being discussed--for obvious reasons. It would be incredibly wasteful. What happens to all the older homes that people would trade in? What about all the embodied energy used to create the windows, doors, and roofing in these older homes? Does it just go to waste?]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88435</link><pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2009 08:42:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Wall Drug: A Fountain of Business Inspiration</title><description><![CDATA[Count me among the legions who have visited the iconic Wall Drug. My family stopped there on our South Dakota vacation last week. And now, with this post, I join the throngs of pundits who have attempted to wrench a business lesson from the experience.

As a perpetual bargain hunter, seemingly forever in search of a free lunch, I was drawn by Wall Drug&#39;s legendary 5-cent coffee, trumpeted relentlessly on billboards along I-90. Once we arrived, I was happy to find several stations, within what&#39;s basically a Wild West indoor mall environment, to partake of the cheap brew.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88368</link><pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 13:18:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Builders Contemplate Next Moves as Markets Recover</title><description><![CDATA[Like a prize fighter recovering from a brutal blow, the home building industry is getting up from the mat and contemplating its next move. Does it make sense to go on the offensive, ramp up speculative inventory, and go for a knock-out punch to recoup losses? Or is the better approach to stick to a conservative game plan, land a few strategic punches here and there, and wait until your company and the economy is on better footing?]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88365</link><pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 10:18:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Small Homes Don't Have to Sacrifice Style</title><description><![CDATA[Building smaller homes that entice buyers is easier said than done. Builders who go through the very necessary exercise of designing smaller homes to meet today&#39;s economic and demographic demands invariably face the same challenges. Here are a few of them, along with answers culled from coverage in Builder and elsewhere and links to more information.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88237</link><pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2009 11:11:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Good News Bears Repeating</title><description><![CDATA[Several days after the most encouraging housing report in years--single-family permits rose 14.4 percent in June--the stock market burst through a glass ceiling, with the Dow Industrial Average reaching a new high of the year, 8,848. Last week, builder confidence rose slightly, triggering a rally in home builder stocks. And reports keep circulating from economists predicting economic growth during the second half of the year.

Good news from credible sources--the government, the markets, economists--is sprouting all over. It&#39;s not time to uncork champagne and throw confetti, but optimism is starting to creep back into the home building market. The financial system has been rescued, and banks are lightening up, a bit. Reports are coming in from builders having success with smaller, more efficient, and often green homes. And new home building enterprises are starting up all over.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88195</link><pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2009 09:28:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Lennar Goes on Lunar Mission To Speed Construction</title><description><![CDATA[Saw a headline on a press release the other day about Lennar building homes in less than 30 days. Wow. The release invited some flights of imagination--imagine if one of the nation&#39;s largest builders could do this in every subdivision across the country. What if every competing builder was forced to follow suit? What an incredible transformative industry event that would be!]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88148</link><pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 10:10:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Are You Building the Right Homes for Today's Buyer?</title><description><![CDATA[Today we publish the results of a landmark survey of new-home shoppers done in May and June that shows would-be home buyers are much more optimistic about their personal financial situation than the overall economy. Now we have empirical evidence to support the anecdotes that we&#39;re hearing from builders--there are plenty of highly qualified buyers in the market today, buyers who are less concerned about the market reaching bottom and more interested in finding the right home.

The survey raises an obvious question, though: Do you have the right product to sell to today&#39;s buyers?]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88103</link><pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 09:04:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Congress Eyes Existing Housing Stock for Energy Upgrades</title><description><![CDATA[Home building lobbies argued against the new-home energy efficiency standards contained in the climate bill that recently passed the House, arguing that the standards would put new homes at an unfair competitive disadvantage with old ones. The House answered that concern by including language that could lead to an energy upgrade of the existing housing stock.

The bill directs the EPA to develop a national and implement a national policy for residential and commercial building energy performance. It says the purpose of the Retrofit for Energy and Environmental Performance (REEP) program would be to ?facilitate? the retrofitting of existing buildings nationwide. It would be up to the states to actually implement the program, though a ton of specifics about building inspections and audits were included.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88062</link><pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:47:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Should Every Buyer Put 20 Percent Down?</title><description><![CDATA[A consensus is emerging in conservative chat rooms that the answer to the housing crisis is that everyone should make a 20 percent downpayment on a house. That&#39;s the only way, advocates say, to make sure buyers keep enough skin in the game in case property values fall and people are tempted to walk away from their homes. Former Treasury Secretary Paul O&#39;Neill advocated this approach last year. 

The argument certainly makes a lot of economic sense. But it overlooks the fact that nearly half of new-home buyers today are putting only 3.5 percent down through FHA mortgage insurance programs. If it weren&#39;t for the availability of government financing, the new-home construction industry may have been completely wiped out. Requiring that everyone make a 20 percent downpayment is overkill.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=88015</link><pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2009 08:56:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>SBA Opens Loan Window for Struggling Builders</title><description><![CDATA[Small builders who need capital to guide them through financial rough waters may be able to find some in the Small Business Administration&#39;s new America?s Capital Recovery (ARC) program.

The program, created by the stimulus package passed earlier this year, offers no-interest, deferred-payment loans of up to $35,000 over a six-month period to financially viable small businesses, including builders.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87968</link><pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 10:59:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Harvard Joint Center Punts on Demographic Projection</title><description><![CDATA[If you think forecasting housing starts is difficult, consider the complexity of forecasting the U.S. population and household formations over the next decade. Terms such as pure guesswork come to mind.

The current demographic picture is so obfuscated that the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University issued two projections in its State of the Housing Industry report last week. The high series assumes that immigration will rise from 1.1 million annually in 2005 to 1.5 million in 2020. The low series assumes immigration holds steady, and head counts actually decrease among the native-born population.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87947</link><pubDate>Mon, 29 Jun 2009 17:18:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>May Sales Numbers Raise Concerns</title><description><![CDATA[Yesterday&#39;s news that new-home sales declined 0.6 percent in May sent a small tremor through the industry. The housing recovery, which started in January, according to Census data, is tenuous at best. Maybe the challenges that home builders face--namely, mounting job losses, competition from foreclosures, and the difficulty buyers have selling existing homes--really are big enough to nip this nascent rally in the bud.

The news broke during a panel discussion yesterday at a New Jersey home builder association meeting that brought to life many current sales challenges. Builders there shared their frustration selling homes to willing and able prospects who couldn&#39;t sell their existing homes, or were reluctant to do so and take a loss. They commiserated about buyer demand for deep discounts. They discussed the futility of competing against foreclosure pricing. ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87897</link><pubDate>Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:40:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Appraisals: Comparing Apples to Lemons</title><description><![CDATA[Ever since the foreclosure epidemic started, builders have complained that it makes no sense to use foreclosed properties as comparables when assessing the value of new homes, even if they do account for half of home sales in some markets. Foreclosed homes may have the same bedroom and bathroom count, they may have the same square footage. But the previous owners may have pulled the home&#39;s copper wire, taken the appliances, or broken the granite countertops out of frustration of dealing with the bank.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87858</link><pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2009 08:14:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Western Builders Move on to Next Challenge</title><description><![CDATA[The builders who attended the Pacific Coast Builders Conference this week breathed a sigh of relief when doomsayer Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody&#39;s economy.com, said he thought the housing market was hitting bottom. It&#39;s time for builders, he said, to get back in the game.

Indeed. But what kind of game will the industry be playing as it starts the long climb from its economic hole? When presenters here weren&#39;t talking about financial calamities, industry attrition, or the next wave of foreclosures, they were discussing the kinds of buyers who are likely to power future prosperity and what they might want in a house.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87745</link><pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 17:19:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Recession Likely to Change Home Buying Behavior</title><description><![CDATA[Builders who have been around a while used to tell revealing stories about buyers who lived through the Great Depression. The so-called silent generation didn&#39;t understand HOA fees, especially ones that went up. They questioned the value of upgrades and wanted to know why they weren&#39;t included. They asked if they could buy a base home and do the finish work later, themselves. Some even treated model home decorations like party favors.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87727</link><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2009 14:31:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Stemming the Foreclosure Tide</title><description><![CDATA[It&#39;s been more than two years since the foreclosure crisis emerged as the biggest threat to a recovery in new-home construction. Even though the Obama administration&#39;s three-month-old program may be having some impact, criticism is mounting, even within Democratic circles, that the government response to the problem hasn&#39;t been strong enough. We may see an additional federal response to the situation in the fall.

Renewed debate was touched off last week when the Obama administration announced that more than 120,000 homeowners had received loan modifications through its $75 billion program. It added that a few thousand more have received refinancing assistance. Even if the program isn&#39;t reaching as many people as possible, the results represent a quantum advance over the Bush Administration&#39;s Hope for Homeowners program, which collapsed under restrictions and eligibility confusion. ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87680</link><pubDate>Thu, 11 Jun 2009 08:52:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>It All Boils Down to Monthly Payments</title><description><![CDATA[One of the most effective ways to market new homes, especially at the entry level, is to emphasize monthly payments. When people see that they can buy a home for only $900 a month, and compare that to the $800 a month they may be paying in rent, the value proposition of ownership becomes abundantly clear. They say to themselves, &quot;Why am I renting, when I could spend a little less on extracurricular activities and buy a place?&quot;

Emphasizing monthly payments makes even more sense today because they are so low, thanks to a retreat in prices and relatively low interest rates. For first-time buyers, this may be much more important than the warm-hearted scenes often emphasized in marketing brochures. Consultant John Burns suggests half facetiously that builders emblazon monthly payments on the garage doors of unsold homes.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87644</link><pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:55:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Animal Spirits: On the Rise</title><description><![CDATA[How do you account for the fact that so many economists missed the housing and tech busts? How do you account for the consumer behavior that led to the booms, with cab drivers flipping houses to make 40 percent gains in one year or soccer moms turning into day traders and making overnight fortunes on internet stocks?

Yale professor Robert Shiller presented a highly plausible explanation in one of my favorite presentations at this year&#39;s Builder 100 conference. He spoke of &quot;animal spirits,&quot; the human tendency to feed off the enthusiasm or pessimism of others to fuel an economic trend. Click here to watch an abridged version of his presentation.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87587</link><pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:26:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Bigelow Successfully Confronts Buyer Anxieties</title><description><![CDATA[What would it take to get potential buyers to stop worrying about economic conditions and buy a new home? A price guarantee? An income guarantee? A guarantee of future operating costs?

Bigelow Homes of Chicago has rolled up all of these assurances, and taken away virtually every buyer objection, in an ingenious package it calls the Recession-Proof Home. Many other builders offer one or more of the protections in this program. But no one offers anything this comprehensive.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87551</link><pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 10:56:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>New Home Sales in April: Too Close To Call</title><description><![CDATA[So, new home sales inched up in April by less than half of one percent, the third consecutive increase, lending further credence to the notion that the housing market may have hit bottom. As much as I&#39;d like to be the purveyor of good news, I&#39;m starting to think things may get worse in the short run before they get better.

The margin of error in this government survey is large enough, about 4 percent, that all it would take is one big correction to wipe out most of the recent gains. The footnote in the government press release ominously reads, &quot;It takes four months to establish a trend for new homes sold.&quot; Well, it hasn&#39;t been four months yet.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87503</link><pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2009 11:02:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Congress Moving to Subject New Homes to National Energy-Efficiency Standards</title><description><![CDATA[At a time when builders can barely compete with resales, Congress is moving toward passage of a bill that would dramatically increase energy efficiency requirements in new homes. The House Energy and Commerce Committee passed legislation last week on a 33-25 vote that would create new, much higher national energy standards for new homes and impose sanctions on builders and buyers who don&#39;t meet them.

The provisions, contained in the so-called American Clean Energy Security Act, would subject new homes to rising efficiency standards, in much the same way new cars are built to efficiency standards. The bill prescribes big investments in clean, renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions and imposes national limits on greenhouse gases.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87465</link><pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2009 10:37:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Pent-Up Demand Unlikely To Provide Strong Updraft</title><description><![CDATA[Some builders hold out hope that &quot;pent-up demand&quot; will kick in soon and lift the housing industry from its doldrums, just as it has after some previous housing recessions. I&#39;m deeply skeptical.

First, lest we forget, the housing industry dramatically overbuilt during the boom, cutting into future demand. Wachovia economist Mark Vitner believes we overbuilt by at least 1.25 million homes. Now buyers with pent-up homeownership ambitions can satisfy them with a foreclosure or short sale. Plus, people who never should have bought homes have been taken out of the buyer pool, shrinking future demand. Many of today&#39;s buyers require counseling to improve their credit scores before they can buy.  ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87439</link><pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2009 10:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Bigger Wasn't Better in 2008</title><description><![CDATA[Don&#39;t be fooled: the biggest builders enjoy significant competitive advantages in today&#39;s marketplace, especially access to long-term public financing. But for the last two years at least, they haven&#39;t been able to use these advantages to outperform the industry. In fact, they have underperformed it.

Our annual Builder 100 survey proves interestingly enough that bigger was not better in 2008. The top 100 companies in home building accounted for a smaller share of the total new-home sales market than the year before, continuing a trend that manifested itself the year before. In 2008, the Builder 100 closed 227,000 homes, 38.7 percent of the single-family homes and condos sold that year, according to U.S. Census statistics. Their share got as high as 43.6 percent in 2006.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87406</link><pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2009 05:32:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Help on the Way?</title><description><![CDATA[The announcement earlier this week that home buyers could use the $8000 tax credit as a downpayment at closing could not have come at a better time. Though builders at our Builder 100 conference reported better sales through the first half of the year, most are worried about what will happen in July, once the spring selling season ends.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87378</link><pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2009 14:15:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Big Builders Emphasize the Positive</title><description><![CDATA[It&#39;s hard to say when the momentum turns in a ballgame. It&#39;s when a football team makes a big goal-line stand or recovers a fumble. It&#39;s when a baseball pitcher strands the potential game-winning run on third base. You can usually only tell after the fact.

In home building, momentum turns when buyers come back to the market worried that bargains may soon disappear. As such, builders have a vested interest in turning the tide of public opinion. They need to convince everyone, especially the media, that we&#39;ve hit bottom and are on the way up.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87362</link><pubDate>Tue, 12 May 2009 08:02:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>What Do Your Unsold Homes Say?</title><description><![CDATA[Buildings, especially bricks, famously spoke to architect Louis Kahn. They also speak to builder John Wieland, especially his unsold inventory. It says things like, &quot;No wonder no one wants to buy me.&quot;

Wieland recently returned from a nearly a two-month tour of his communities throughout the south. Each night he pitched a mattress in an unsold spec home, and asked himself the question, &quot;Why hasn&#39;t this house sold?&quot;
]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87297</link><pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 11:36:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Speculative Inventory: Blessing or Curse?</title><description><![CDATA[Today&#39;s buyers, some builders believe, simply won&#39;t wait four to six months for a new home to be built. With interest rates low, and prices at bargain-basement levels, they want their home now. If one builder can&#39;t provide it, they&#39;ll turn to a recent-vintage foreclosure or another builder who can. 

Faced with this kind ultimatum, many builders--big and small, but mostly big--feel like they have no choice but to build some spec inventory, a business strategy that may be contrary to the best interests of the housing industry. Most economists and policy makers will tell you that the key to triggering a housing recovery is working off unsold inventory. Once again, market forces and public policy are on a collision course.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87294</link><pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 09:52:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Special Touches Equal Special Communities</title><description><![CDATA[I&#39;ll never forget taking a busload of builders on a tour of Prairie Crossing 10 years ago, shortly after it had opened. One builder looked at the swales and basins used to collect rainwater in lieu of sewers and cracked that he&#39;d like to have the contract for mosquito abatement. Another said that the community&#39;s rural housing styles were exactly what his family wanted to leave when they moved to the city. The builder sitting next to me couldn&#39;t believe the HOA allowed residents to plant prairie grass in their front yards.

Located in the northern suburbs of Chicago, Prairie Crossing wasn&#39;t everyone&#39;s cup of tea, to be sure. Like all trail-blazing developments, this early sustainable community struggled mightily in the early-going, attracting more industry gawkers than buyers. Yet it previewed many of the irrigation, planning, and common space concepts that wound up replicated during the next decade in a new breed of sustainable communities. You can view 10 of our favorites on a new map we developed.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87275</link><pubDate>Thu, 30 Apr 2009 10:23:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>New Companies Rise from Home Building's Ashes</title><description><![CDATA[The regenerative process has started in home building. Like trees that come back after a forest fire, new companies are sprouting through the scorched earth of the home building market.

As Teresa Burney reports in her web-first feature, most of these start-ups are led by former home builders, who were either away from the industry for a while or worked for large public companies. More often than not, they are starting over with a new business model that reduces their risk and doesn&#39;t involve banks.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87248</link><pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 09:18:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Time to Hunt for Fresh Equity</title><description><![CDATA[Banks are giving builders fits. Even when homes are sold, they may be unwilling to provide the construction financing to build it. They aren&#39;t renewing credit lines, or they are attaching onerous terms. Many banks want to exit real estate altogether. So what&#39;s a builder to do?

The simple answer is to find new equity sources. That&#39;s not always easy to do, which is why we asked Chuck Shinn of Shinn Consulting to do a webinar for us yesterday on searching out alternative sources of financing. You can watch it as part of our Presidential Online Seminar in the archives at Builderonline.com by clicking here. Here&#39;s an executive summary.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87195</link><pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:35:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>How to Succeed at Discounting By Really Trying</title><description><![CDATA[Dear Boyce,
I have a question that I&#39;m sure you&#39;ve faced numerous times and would like your opinion. We are a mid-sized, high-end builder in a Midwest market. Obviously, all builders are faced with giving discounts on their existing inventory to create revenue. What seems to happen more often than not is if we advertise reduced prices we still get our buyers expecting additional discounts when they visit our projects. It seems we would be better off waiting to offer the discounts at the time of the visit, but then the amount of traffic is reduced. What&#39;s your opinion?&quot;   Midwestern Builder.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87073</link><pubDate>Mon, 20 Apr 2009 17:33:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Race to Recovery: Which Markets Will Win?</title><description><![CDATA[Make no mistake: Some local home building markets will recover before others. To get a better handle on which ones they&#39;ll be, we recently polled five housing experts and asked them to pick the five markets that might recover first. I think you&#39;ll enjoy seeing which markets they chose.

While some selections were predictable--Washington, D.C. and Dallas made several of the lists--others were surprising. Two analysts singled out San Diego, largely because the downturn has pounded pricing to the bottom there but also because it&#39;s a ghost town--many of the major builders have moved on. Sacramento came up on the radar of analysts because it led the way down and, the thinking goes, may lead it back up.




Make no mistake: Some local home building markets will recover before others. To get a better handle on it, we recently polled five housing experts and asked them to pick the five markets that might recover first. I think you&#39;ll enjoy reading their picks.

While some selections were predictable, Washington D.C. and Dallas made several lists, others were surprising. Two analysts singled out San Diego, largely because the downturn has pounded pricing to the bottom there but also because it&#39;s a ghost town--many of the major builders have moved on. Sacramento came up on the radar of analysts because it led the way down and, the thinking goes, may lead it back up.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=87016</link><pubDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2009 10:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>10 Good Reasons to Attend Builder 100 </title><description><![CDATA[Travel budgets are tight, leadership obligations intense, agendas full--there are a lot of reasons not to travel to conferences this year. But there are many more, and better, reasons why you should attend this year&#39;s Builder 100 conference, which will be held May 11 through 13 at the Peninsula Hotel in Chicago. 

Attendance at the conference is open to top executives of the 200 largest home building companies, which this year means firms doing 50 homes a year or more. Given the acute need for actionable business information, we&#39;ve pulled out all the stops to plan the best, the most ambitious Builder 100 conference ever. It&#39;s also the only conference Builder will be doing this year. Here&#39;s a link to information about the conference, including registration.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86992</link><pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2009 09:57:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Pulte-Centex Deal Could Be Start of Something Big</title><description><![CDATA[Many trees have died in the last 15 years to support print stories about the potential for mergers between the biggest home building companies. After yesterday&#39;s announcement that No. 2 Pulte intends to buy No. 3 Centex, we now know those trees weren&#39;t harvested in vain. ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86949</link><pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2009 09:11:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>It Sure Feels Like We've Hit Bottom</title><description><![CDATA[The economic pundits are dancing around the question of whether the housing market has reached bottom. After five consecutive positive reports on housing indicators, they are saying things like maybe the market has reached bottom, the bottom is definitely in sight, or the bottom is near. They have issued a resounding, collective &quot;definite maybe.&quot;]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86912</link><pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2009 10:21:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Entrepreneurial Instincts Lead to New Business for Builders</title><description><![CDATA[During the housing boom, many builders reduced their extracurricular activities, focusing for productivity reasons on core home-building activities. No one has that luxury anymore.

In video interviews with Phoenix builders earlier this week, conversation invariably turned to all the things builders are doing besides building new homes. They are remodeling homes formerly built for customers, building out Dunkin Donuts shops, buying existing homes from would-be customers, operating real estate agencies, flipping foreclosed property, and managing apartments--in short, doing whatever it takes to keep the doors open.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86869</link><pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2009 09:40:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Is Anyone Making Money Selling Homes?</title><description><![CDATA[Builders keep asking me whether I know of any builders who are actually making money selling homes, besides the ones who took paper losses on impairments. I&#39;m hard pressed to tell them that I do, since even builders who only optioned land are reporting losses. I talked with an on-your-lot-only builder the other day who was still doing OK.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86844</link><pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 09:20:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Opportunity Knocks: Answer the Door</title><description><![CDATA[The first two presenters in our Presidential Seminar series spoke on different topics, but they agreed on one thing: now&#39;s the time to mobilize the troops to take advantage of opportunities. 

I probably won&#39;t do justice to these hour-long presentations by Martin Freedland and John Burns by trying to summarize them in print. I recommend that you devote a &quot;lunch break&quot; this week to watching them. You can do that by registering here.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86802</link><pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2009 11:54:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Too Much Good News to Bear</title><description><![CDATA[The housing industry is on a roll. Let&#39;s hope it doesn&#39;t let up. First, single-family starts eke out a small gain last week, 1.1 percent. More important to future prospects, permits are up 11 percent. This week, existing home sales defy expectations and rise 5.1 percent. Then yesterday the Obama plan to buy sick mortgage assets is greeted by a stock market rally. Can all this good news possibly continue?

]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86757</link><pubDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2009 10:18:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>It's a Good Time to Buy a Home</title><description><![CDATA[Builders keep telling me that the federal government just doesn&#39;t understand the home building industry and what it will take to jump-start the market. They say this largely because Congress last month didn&#39;t pass a big tax credit for buying a home.

But, as yesterday&#39;s announcement by the Federal Reserve Board reminds us, the federal government has pumped 100s of billions of dollars into stabilizing the housing industry. It&#39;s just that the aid has been directed at stabilizing the banking industry, unplugging the mortgage-security market, and getting mortgage money flowing again.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86722</link><pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2009 12:37:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Tale of Two Industries</title><description><![CDATA[Could we have lost so many builders throughout the country that, as weird as it may seem, some companies are starting to feel an uptick just because they are still in business? In other words, could the survivors be getting more business just because there are fewer builders to go around?]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86674</link><pubDate>Tue, 17 Mar 2009 09:47:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Congress Earmarks Money for Housing Projects</title><description><![CDATA[The housing industry will receive a decent share of the pork in the $410 billion spending bill signed into law yesterday. The law contains billions of dollars earmarked for construction projects, including money for housing, mixed-use development, and rehab work throughout the country.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86617</link><pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2009 10:37:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>A 400-Level Course in Design: Doing Way More With Much Less </title><description><![CDATA[Many, if not most, builders got into the business because they have a passion for designing and building cool new homes. These days, with their companies locked in survival mode, they have had to turn their attention to more pressing issues, like generating enough cash to keep the company running. But increasingly it&#39;s become apparent that you won&#39;t make a sale, and generate that cash, unless you are building homes that stand out in the market.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86579</link><pubDate>Tue, 10 Mar 2009 09:58:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>NAHB Questions Relationship With High Production Builders</title><description><![CDATA[A rift between the National Association of Home Builders and CEOs of the biggest home building companies went public this week. The NAHB on its web site has officially asked its members for &quot;feedback&quot; on its &quot;ongoing relationship&quot; with its High Production Home Builders Council.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86531</link><pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2009 08:50:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Doctors' Advice: Focus on the Future</title><description><![CDATA[The economists who presented at a local housing forecast seminar this morning came armed with a few good jokes, necessary levity given the gloomy state of the economy. But they were dead serious about one thing: The housing market is going to improve within the next year, and if you are only reacting to each backward-looking government statistical release, you are going to miss out on the upturn.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86447</link><pubDate>Thu, 26 Feb 2009 10:57:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Every Number Tells a Story</title><description><![CDATA[There are few surprises on our list of the weakest housing markets for 2009, besides just how deeply these markets have been affected by the downturn. These are the cities and towns that you read about in newspaper articles, the ones about people underwater on their mortgages walking away from their homes, about big companies doing massive layoffs, about home values taking big nosedives.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86412</link><pubDate>Tue, 24 Feb 2009 10:12:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Foreclosure Relief Could Lift Home Building</title><description><![CDATA[When you look at a heat map of foreclosure patterns in the United States, it&#39;s clear that foreclosures have decimated states that have historically produced the most new homes--California, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona, in particular. For that reason alone, if the $275 billion plan announced yesterday by the Obama administration to stem the foreclosure tide actually helps stablize pricing, it ould really help the home building industry regain its footing.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86335</link><pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2009 09:25:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>New Tax Credit Should Stimulate Some Sales</title><description><![CDATA[Ok, the new $8000 tax credit isn&#39;t everything the industry wanted. It&#39;s limited to first-time buyers. It&#39;s half the size of the $15,000 credit that passed the Senate.

But unlike last year&#39;s credit, it doesn&#39;t have to be paid back. It can be combined with other forms of home buyer assistance. And it&#39;s only available through December 1st, giving people an added incentive to buy soon.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86316</link><pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2009 10:20:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Congress Back-Pedals on Housing Stimulus</title><description><![CDATA[There&#39;s an old saying in Washington that, if you give a member of Congress a chance to vote on both sides of an issue, he will take it every time. That appears to be what happened with the housing provisions contained in the housing stimulus bill that is headed for President Obama&#39;s desk.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86296</link><pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2009 10:26:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Positive Signs Emerge in Housing Market</title><description><![CDATA[The days are getting longer, spring training is about to begin, and it seems like the thaw is beginning to crack in the home building market. Several reports of late indicate that we may be nearing the bottom of the housing downturn. Let&#39;s hope it&#39;s not wishful thinking.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86273</link><pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2009 09:27:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Horton Resorts to 'Short Sale'</title><description><![CDATA[Is this what it&#39;s come to--you need to make it look like you are in distress just to make a sale? That&#39;s the tactic that D.R. Horton, the country&#39;s largest home builder, used last weekend in Las Vegas and Laughlin when it reportedly sold 150 homes through a &quot;Builder Short Sale.&quot; ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86241</link><pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2009 09:54:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Builders Mount Last-Ditch Effort for Housing Stimulus</title><description><![CDATA[It&#39;s hard to believe that in an $800-billion-plus stimulus bill the House of Representatives could find so little for housing. Just about the only thing in there is a provision that would convert the $7500 housing tax credit for first-time buyers authorized last summer to an actual tax credit, one that doesn&#39;t have to be paid back. Oh, and the bill would extended loss carry-back provisions in the tax code by an additional three years. That&#39;s great for builders who can survive this housing Armageddon.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86210</link><pubDate>Mon, 02 Feb 2009 12:13:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>No Regional Shelter From This Storm</title><description><![CDATA[Regional diversification helped home building companies survive home building recessions in California, Texas, and Washington D.C. during the last 20 years. But the evidence is mounting that regional diversification is only hurting builders this time around.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86189</link><pubDate>Thu, 29 Jan 2009 08:58:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Future on Display in Today's Progressive New Homes</title><description><![CDATA[Smaller, greener, more flexible--those are the kinds of homes that nearly every builder will be building once the market finally improves. At least this was the speculation among builders and architects in panel discussions and interviews at last week&#39;s IBS.

We&#39;re already seeing the beginnings of this as companies reinvent themselves during the downturn. Consider that half the homes built by Beazer Homes are now less than 2,000 square feet, or that hundreds of builders throughout the country offer certified green homes, or that customization of new homes is on a serious upswing.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86163</link><pubDate>Tue, 27 Jan 2009 08:25:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Bankruptcy: A Last Resort</title><description><![CDATA[I was talking with a prominent bankruptcy attorney the other day about which was a better option for builders: declaring bankruptcy or liquidating the company. He didn&#39;t really want to answer the question, except to say, neither--work with your banks.

That probably is the best advice for builders forced to consider these awful options. The choice between filing Chapter 11 and just closing the doors comes down to how much you think your land is really worth. Because that may be all you are saving if you file for bankruptcy protection.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86086</link><pubDate>Thu, 15 Jan 2009 11:11:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Let's Redraft Federal Housing Policy</title><description><![CDATA[During the Bush and Clinton administrations, the country&#39;s housing policy could be summed up in two words: Promote homeownership. It was certainly a commendable goal in the minds of most home builders and public policy analysts. Academics have attributed all sorts of social good to owning homes, including better-educated children, less crime, and greater wealth. And I don&#39;t know about you, but I was pretty damned happy when my wife and I bought our first house and started a family.
]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86071</link><pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:39:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Race to the Finish</title><description><![CDATA[Next week, four semi-trailers will leave a factory in Southern California carrying the modules and panels that make up our show home for this year&#39;s International Builders&#39; Show in Las Vegas. The convoy will idle across the street in a parking lot, waiting for the convention floor to open for exhibitors. Then, when the doors roll up at 12:01 a.m. on the morning of the 14th, crews will race the components to the floor and begin a mad, five-day race to ready the home for visitors.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86056</link><pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2009 09:33:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Fight to Survive</title><description><![CDATA[There can be only one new year&#39;s resolution for builders in 2009: Stay in business. If the more than 500 responses to our annual survey of readers are any indication, most builders are ready to put up a good fight. Most will no doubt survive. Some may even prosper. 

Builders are slashing their overhead to reduce monthly expenses to a bare minimum. They are doing whatever they can to improve cash flow. They have redoubled their marketing efforts, particularly those involving the internet, and they are working referrals hard. They are getting into green building in a big way. They are refinancing their bank credit, building few to no specs, and taking whatever construction business they can get.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86047</link><pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 09:18:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Builders Likely to Get Cool Reception in Congress</title><description><![CDATA[More than 100 builders plan to lobby Congress next month, asking lawmakers to include some meaty housing provisions in a second economic stimulus bill. Even though most legislators would probably agree that jump starting the housing market could very well turn the economy around, builders are likely to get a cool reception on Capitol Hill. Here are the objections they are likely to hear.

]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=86008</link><pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 10:06:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>A Year of Upheaval and Hardship </title><description><![CDATA[As 2008 draws to a close, it&#39;s impossible not to reflect on the unprecented series of interwoven events that occured during the year. It was a year of many firsts, a year of broken records, a year of unprecedented government actions. But it was also a year of incredible hardship, for families that lost their homes, for people who lost their jobs, for builders who lost their businesses.

As credit stopped flowing and opportunity disappeared, builders who hadn&#39;t taken undue risk were forced to liquidate or seek bankruptcy protection. As 2008 began, our surveys indicated that builders, perenial optimists, thought the housing recession would end soon. Instead, the fourth year of the housing recession took its toll on some great companies, Village Homes in Denver, Taylor-Morley Homes in St. Louis, and Chicago&#39;s Kimball Hill, to name just a few.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85983</link><pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 16:24:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>2009 Housing Forecast: Read All About It! </title><description><![CDATA[When your favorite football team loses in agonizing fashion--say a running back reaches out with the football to try to get it over the end line and it&#39;s swatted away, resulting in a fumble, no points, and a lost game--do you want to read about it in the newspaper the next morning? If you are like me, you don&#39;t need to re-live the agony, though maybe you&#39;ll read a columnist excoriate the team for it&#39;s pitiful play.

The situation is not unlike the one in which builders find themselves each morning. You are living the agony of the housing recession day to day. Do you really need to buy the paper just to read the story about housing starts falling to levels last seen when we were storming the beaches at Normandy? Do you really want to spend time with a piece on how builder confidence is so low that the index may need to be revised? What&#39;s it going to tell you that you don&#39;t already know?]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85960</link><pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 09:30:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>One for the History Books</title><description><![CDATA[Today&#39;s Census Bureau release--stating that builders started only 625,000 homes on a seasonally adjusted basis in November--sent analysts to their bookshelves to dust off tomes on the history of home building. All in their desire to answer the question: How long since it&#39;s been this bad?

November&#39;s level of activity, which startled even the most pessimistic analysts but probably didn&#39;t surprise many builders, is the lowest since the federal government started officially keeping score in 1959. That&#39;s easy to confirm by analyzing data on the Census Bureau&#39;s web site. The economics firm, IHS Global Insight, has extrapolated unpublished government housing data going back to 1947, when the government was in the midst of stimulating housing construction for returning veterans. IHS Global Insight says November&#39;s numbers are the lowest since then. ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85941</link><pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2008 11:38:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>A Tough Pill to Swallow</title><description><![CDATA[Judging by our reporting, it looks like builders are getting little to no pop from the big drop in mortgage rates that followed the Fed&#39;s announcement it would buy up bad mortgage-backed securities. Builders say that potential buyers not only have trouble qualifying for mortgages, but they are overcome by paralysis; they are worried about the value of their existing homes and their stock-market investments.

]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85903</link><pubDate>Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:06:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>More Foreclosure Relief on the Way</title><description><![CDATA[More and more households are losing their homes to foreclosures despite government programs designed to contain them. In recent days Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and President-elect Barack Obama have said that the government needs to do more to stem the foreclosure tide.

Despite good-faith efforts by both the private and public sectors, the foreclosure rate remains too high, with adverse consequences for both those directly involved and for the broader economy, Bernanke said last week at a Fed conference on housing and the mortgage market. Bernanke, who outlined six alternative proposals for coming to the aid of homeowners facing foreclosure, said that steps that stabilize the housing market will help stabilize the economy as well.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85880</link><pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 09:59:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Can Housing Overcome a General Economic Recession?</title><description><![CDATA[In case you didn&#39;t hear it, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced this week that the U.S. economy is officially in recession. With most economists predicting it will be relatively long and deep, the question becomes whether the housing industry can find a way to rebound next year anyway.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85867</link><pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 11:33:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>And Now For Something Completely Different</title><description><![CDATA[With new home sales off more than 60 percent from their peak, it&#39;s almost unfair to highlight builders who have managed to beat the market. The industry&#39;s plight is not unlike George Clooney&#39;s in that final scene from &quot;The Perfect Storm&quot; where he gives one last valiant effort to escape waves about to capsize his boat. Virtually every company is down in this market, and learning to live with it.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85844</link><pubDate>Tue, 02 Dec 2008 09:32:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Calling the Bottom with Affordability Metrics</title><description><![CDATA[One of the more interesting and seemingly credible theories for calling the housing market&#39;s bottom is to analyze affordability metrics. The theory goes like this: If home prices fall far enough, if they return to levels that preceded the explosion in subprime lending, maybe the market will find equilibrium.

How far have prices fallen? Most housing economists seem to prefer the Case-Shiller index as the best measure of existing home prices. Data released today, which show home price declines accelerating by the way, indicate that existing home prices have retreated 21 percent on a national basis since their peak. They have returned to early 2004 levels.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85808</link><pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2008 11:10:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Should Home Builders Be Public Companies?</title><description><![CDATA[A major supplier to the home building industry told me an interesting story over lunch the other day. He was called in to the offices of a top 10 home building company to discuss (what else?) price cuts. As he was escorted into the conference room, the vice president of purchasing said to him, &quot;I&#39;m sorry to have to do this to you. Home builders shouldn&#39;t be public companies.&quot;

While the home building executive was no doubt referring to brutal actions to cut costs to the bone to improve margins and appease investors, the comment works on many levels. There are many private builders out there who lay the blame for the housing boom, and subsequent bust, at the feet of public builders whom they say built homes and market share at any cost. These same builders, they argue, continued to pump out specs after the end came in an attempt to work off land inventory, at the expense of every other builder in the marketplace.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85742</link><pubDate>Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:14:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>A Housing Solution for the Birds</title><description><![CDATA[Did you see Merrill Lynch Economist David Rosenberg&#39;s comments on a Wall Street Journal blog yesterday that, in response to the housing crisis, the country should consider putting a moratorium on new home building? Apparently he made the remarks half jokingly, arguing that we need to curtail supply to put a floor under the market and stop prices from falling.

Maybe we should stop producing cars and computers, too. That would certainly help prevent prices of those items from declining. Also, imagine the pressure that could be relieved on landfills if people had to fix their cars instead of buying new ones. And why buy new computers all the time when you could just upgrade the components in your old one.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85704</link><pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:18:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Foreclosure Relief Gets Short Shrift</title><description><![CDATA[Talk about burying the lead. During his speech yesterday to reset priorities on the $700 billion bailout plan, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson emphasized that he would provide capital infusions to banks, other financial institutions, and support the market for student loans, credit cards, and auto loans. That&#39;s what led the news stories on his speech.

A few paragraphs later we found out that the Treasury had abandoned its plan to buy bad mortgage-backed securities. The original goal of the bailout plan was to buy those securities and try to help homeowners by adjusting the underlying mortgages. He did say that the Department was looking for other ways to meet its commitment to assist borrowers facing foreclosure.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85670</link><pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 09:48:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Where's the Talk of Home Builder Bailouts?</title><description><![CDATA[If the government can rescue insurance companies, mutual funds, commercial banks, investment banks, and perhaps even automotive companies, maybe it should be looking at home building companies as well. After all, they generate millions of jobs--jobs that are in serious jeopardy. And the downturn certainly jeopardizes the continued existence of thousands of home building firms.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85643</link><pubDate>Tue, 11 Nov 2008 10:24:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>A Tall Housing Order for the New President</title><description><![CDATA[The housing industry arguably has never had so much riding on a presidential election. Whoever is elected President tonight--and maybe we&#39;ll actually know tonight--will face a slew of policy issues central to the housing industry. The urgency is such that work may begin during the final two months of the year, even before the President takes office in January. Here&#39;s a sampling of key concerns.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85590</link><pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 10:21:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>October: A Month to Remember</title><description><![CDATA[Talk about raising false hope. The Commerce Department issued a release the other day saying that new home sales were actually up in September. While they rose only 2.4 percent, a small enough margin that the gain could be wiped out through a statistical error, some analysts took the development as evidence that the home building industry may be on the verge of a rebound.

Most of the builders we&#39;ve talked with recently say the market took a decided turn for the worse in October, just as the government released the September numbers. It&#39;s hard to say why sales may have increased in September, though it may have had something to do with the impending demise of seller-provided downpayment assistance, or a rush of investors into the market.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85562</link><pubDate>Thu, 30 Oct 2008 12:37:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Next Housing Boost</title><description><![CDATA[A new coalition of 17 large production builders, backed by The National Association of Home Builders, is lobbying Congress to enact a new, much larger housing tax credit and mortgage write-downs with the aim of jump-starting the housing industry and the national economy. The Fix Housing First Coalition hopes to gain some traction with its ideas in advance of House hearings tomorrow on yet another economic stimulous bill. Right now, Congress seems more intent on spending money on public infrastructure first.

The new housing proposal would be modeled after a plan that got housing activity going in 1975, when Congress passed a $2,000 temporary tax credit on the sale of all new homes and Ginnie Mae cut rates by a point and a half. This time, inflation being what it is, the coalition would like to see a credit of $12,000 to $22,000, depending on median home prices. Moreover, the credit would be good on the purchase of all homes, not just new ones. Unlike the $7500 tax credit that Congress passed this summer--which was really a loan, since it had to be repaid--this credit would actually be a credit.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85538</link><pubDate>Tue, 28 Oct 2008 11:41:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Economists See Light at End of Tunnel</title><description><![CDATA[A steady parade of housing economists, speaking at yesterday&#39;s NAHB Construction Forecast Conference, seemed to agree that housing industry may hit bottom in the winter and begin a slow climb from dispair in the spring. But several practioners of the so-called &quot;dismal&quot; science said it&#39;s also nearly impossible to forecast the housing industry because it has never faced a similar situation.

Forecasting models use history to project future events. But when has the industry ever been struggling to climb out of a ditch when foreclosure sales outpace new home sales, when more than a million empty homes sit in shadow inventory, when we have upheaval in world financial markets, and when we&#39;re waiting to see the impact of the most recent financial industry rescue package? It&#39;s like shooting craps.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85508</link><pubDate>Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:17:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Builders Tap the Power of Joint Marketing</title><description><![CDATA[One of the more intriguing things I&#39;ve seen in my recent travels is a joint-marketing deal between Grand Homes, one of the largest private builders in Dallas, and Williams-Sonoma, one of the best-known retailers in the country. The arrangement is proof that two brands can work better than one in today&#39;s rough-and-tumble sales environment.

Grand Homes does a ton of local advertising. It&#39;s all over the weekend real estate section. The company&#39;s name comes up high in Internet searches. But I would still bet you that Williams-Sonoma, a brand that consumers see each time they go to the mall, has better name recognition. The only time consumers typically notice a builder&#39;s brand is when they are in the market for a new home, which doesn&#39;t happen very often.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85493</link><pubDate>Tue, 21 Oct 2008 14:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Green Building: Changing Buyer Behavior</title><description><![CDATA[Did you see the headlines this summer noting that Americans were using more mass transit? Pain at the pump got bad enough that people changed behavior; they gave up the luxury of driving to work and decided instead to take light rail or a bus. This decision, of course, is great for the environment because it cuts down on the country&#39;s carbon emissions. But that&#39;s not why most people did it. They wanted to save money, even at the cost of inconvenience.

]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85464</link><pubDate>Thu, 16 Oct 2008 14:55:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The View from Vegas</title><description><![CDATA[Make no mistake: It?s every home building company for itself in the rough-and-tumble Las Vegas market these days. In more congenial times, salespeople would refer prospects to other builders or talk generally about the desirability of living in a master plan, but those days are gone. ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85434</link><pubDate>Tue, 14 Oct 2008 15:44:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures</title><description><![CDATA[I nearly fell out of the Barcalounger, and I did spit up a bit of my Sprite Zero, when presidential hopeful John McCain told a national television audience the other night that as president he?d pick up the check for many of the bad mortgages out there. The housing crisis has deepened so severely in recent weeks that politicians seem willing to throw aside political ideology to fix it. The Republican candidate is now on record as willing to intervene directly in the housing market.

A Democratically controlled Congress, if you can remember what transpired a week ago, was only willing to split the difference with lenders. The plan so far has been to help people refinance into safer FHA-insured mortgages, but only if their lender forgives part of the principal. It?s not clear how many people the program, which HUD recently rolled out, will actually help, because lenders are likely first to try to their own workouts by lowering interest rates.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85409</link><pubDate>Thu, 09 Oct 2008 13:38:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>All Eyes on Housing</title><description><![CDATA[It seems as though the whole country has its eyes glued on the housing industry in the hope that this mighty economic engine can perform its usual duty of pulling the economy out of the doldrums. This is the role that the housing industry traditionally plays.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85373</link><pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:30:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Senate-Passed Legislation May Be Too Attractive for the House to Ignore</title><description><![CDATA[What a difference two days and $110 billion in election-year goodies makes. It looks as though the $810 billion bailout bill that passed the Senate yesterday may garner enough votes in the House?12 representatives who voted ?no? on Monday need to change their minds?to pass Congress and wind up on the president?s desk.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85335</link><pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2008 14:49:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>How Builders Would Jump Start the Market</title><description><![CDATA[Economists and government officials seem to agree that the housing market will need to reverse course in order for the economy to strengthen. Yet the rescue package that Congress rejected yesterday would have done little to change the housing market?s downward dynamic.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85314</link><pubDate>Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:05:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Builders? Optimism Fails to Persuade Analyst</title><description><![CDATA[The notoriously bearish Ivy Zelman ended her conference where she began. Asked in the hallways whether anything she?d heard over the day and a half of her 2008 Housing Summit had changed her negative stance on the home building sector, she reiterated her opinion that investors should sell most builder stocks. ?It?s very hard for us to see the light at the end of the tunnel,? she said.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85268</link><pubDate>Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:58:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Financial Bailout: Will It Work?</title><description><![CDATA[Will the Treasury plan to buy up to $700 billion in bad mortgages off the books of financial institutions be enough to turn around the housing recession? That?s the question that everyone--from the halls of Congress, to the streets of Manhattan, to the tracts of home building--seems to be debating this week.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85255</link><pubDate>Tue, 23 Sep 2008 16:21:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Foreclosures Peaked?</title><description><![CDATA[Which do you want first, the good news or the bad news? Let&#39;s start with the good news. We&#39;re at the tail end of a wave of subprime resets that has lifted foreclosures to record highs this year. And as the surf goes out, it should help builders forced into an uneven fight with foreclosures, which for all their problems enjoy an unbeatable price advantage.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85200</link><pubDate>Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:43:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Quick Change</title><description><![CDATA[Last Friday, things were relatively calm in Washington, though the Department of Labor sent a chill through policy makers with the announcement that the economy shed 84,000 jobs in August, increasing the unemployment rate from 5.7 to 6.1 percent. Then, over the weekend, Hurricane Hank swept through the nation?s capital, with gale-force regulatory winds, stirring up the status quo and permanently altering the landscape.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85151</link><pubDate>Tue, 09 Sep 2008 14:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>McCain on Housing</title><description><![CDATA[With the Republican National Convention going full steam, and the housing industry still very much in the news, let?s take a look at what a McCain administration might offer in the way of a housing policy.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85117</link><pubDate>Tue, 02 Sep 2008 15:58:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Obama on Housing</title><description><![CDATA[It?s been a while since housing policy figured prominently in a presidential debate. This time around both candidates, Senators Barak Obama (D-Ill.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), have stated positions on a wide range of issues that affect home builders, their buyers, and lenders. With the Democratic Convention dominating the airwaves for the next few nights, let?s take a look at what an Obama administration might try to accomplish.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=85078</link><pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:34:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Uncertain Times</title><description><![CDATA[It?s getting difficult to remember all the ?significant? events in this historic housing downturn, which is entering its fourth year. But it was about this time last year that we had the subprime meltdown, and mortgage products that had been responsible for 35 to 40 percent of 2006 production (mostly subprime and alt-A mortgages) the year before disappeared. Maybe it was pure coincidence, but the numbers for single family starts came out today and they are down 39 percent in one year.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84990</link><pubDate>Tue, 19 Aug 2008 15:33:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Move ?em on Out!</title><description><![CDATA[We faithfully bring you all the home building news every day on Builderonline?reports on new home sales, mortgage interest rates, consumer sentiment, you name it. But sometimes it seems as though many of these reports are irrelevant. Unsold inventory is the one metric that really bears watching. Virtually every housing economist believes that working down unsold inventory levels is the key to turning the industry around.

Unfortunately, like the airline pilot who gets you to the gate 15 minutes early, only to find another airplane there, I have good news and bad news to report. First, the home building industry has done a great job in recent months working down unsold inventory. We now have only about 426,000 unsold units throughout the country, and in some markets, speculative inventory is so low, it?s laughable.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84983</link><pubDate>Tue, 12 Aug 2008 13:42:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>True Colors</title><description><![CDATA[For about forty years, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been at a masquerade ball, pretending to be free-standing, American businesses. Now, with one fell swoop, the new housing bill has yanked away their masks, exposing them for what they truly are--government agencies.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84971</link><pubDate>Tue, 05 Aug 2008 09:51:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Bittersweet Bill</title><description><![CDATA[The so-called housing ?rescue? bill, passed by Congress and awaiting the President?s signature, delivered a pounding to the housing industry in the first few days after its provisions became clear. Public builder stocks fell by more than 15 percent upon news that the bill would eliminate as of Oct. 1 of this year the down-payment assistance programs widely used by builders.

Moreover, lawmakers immediately hedged their bets on the impact that the bill would have on the market. Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.), a chief architect of the bill, noted that its modest relief for at most 400,000 households at risk of foreclosure would merely slow a rising tide of foreclosures. He said that one in eight homes is expected to enter foreclosure over the next five years.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84958</link><pubDate>Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Green Galore</title><description><![CDATA[If the activity in this Delaware beach town is any indication, green building has really taken root. A huge billboard on U.S. 1 offers zero-energy homes. The newspaper features the success story of a developer Bob Thornton whose business is up thanks to offering green homes. Everywhere, ads tout the green and energy-efficient details of new homes.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84945</link><pubDate>Tue, 22 Jul 2008 14:35:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Tipping Point</title><description><![CDATA[If higher fuel prices change family dynamics, they impact home buying decisions as well. Simple economics dictates that the $200 or $300 a month families pay for gas leaves less money for a mortgage payment. It affects how far a family is willing to commute, given that that each time you fill up the tank it costs more than taking the family out to dinner at a decent restaurant. It may even delay the dream of selling a well-worn, close-in home for that elegant suburban home of your dreams.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84928</link><pubDate>Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:40:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Changing Times</title><description><![CDATA[Starbucks recently announced that it would be closing 600 under-performing locations. This marks a pretty stark about-face for a company that for years seemed to strive for ubiquity when it comes to serving our seemingly bottomless need for caffeinated beverages. I wondered how long they could justify having shops across the street from each other, just so people didn?t have to make a left-hand turn in traffic, or a caf? in the grocery store, a few doors down from a free-standing store.

The move, a sign of current weakness in the retail and restaurant business, brings to mind the many sites for new homes developed in recent years that probably never should have felt the pinch of a shovel. Like the coffee chains, our industry couldn?t seem to find a bad location. It didn?t seem to matter that builders were selling nearly the same houses across the new arterial road from each other.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84909</link><pubDate>Tue, 08 Jul 2008 13:39:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Turn for the Worse</title><description><![CDATA[Which leads to the most frequent question I get right now: Is every private builder out there on the ropes today? No, not every private is having trouble with the bank and on the verge of collapse. There are plenty of prudently managed companies that will come out whole on the other end. Many have acted aggressively during the downturn to shore up financing.

Unfortunately, as we?re finding in our reports on failing builders, the seeds of today?s weakness were sown many years ago, in ill-advised land purchases at the top of the market, a failure to diversify lending sources, and an unwillingness to let go of assets early in the downturn. A reluctance to seek help early?in the form of advice from lawyers and accountants?is another recurring theme.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84898</link><pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:58:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title> NAHB Compromises to Obtain Housing Relief</title><description><![CDATA[In an effort to hasten the passage of housing relief legislation, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) officially abandoned its support of a controversial provision in the Senate-passed bill that would have allowed builders to carry back their losses two additional years. The provision could have saved the industry $25 billion by allowing builders to recoup taxes paid when business was booming. It would have helped the biggest builders in particular.

The NAHB has decided instead to focus on the passage of a home buyer tax credit, which, it said, should be as broad as possible. House-passed legislation includes a $7,500 credit for first-time home buyers that would have to be repaid to the government within 15 years. The Senate bill would enact a $7,000 credit to purchase homes in foreclosure for one year. The home buyer tax credit, the NAHB says, would do the most to help the industry. ]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84894</link><pubDate>Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:00:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Battle to Stay Afloat</title><description><![CDATA[I was a little surprised to see in an NAHB survey last week that only one in three builders had reported that lenders had ordered property reappraisals. Based on comments from builders and analysts, and some high-profile cases that have made the news, I thought the figure would be higher.

Jim Chapman, president of Legend Homes, Oregon?s largest builder, said last week that the company filed Chapter 11 because a national bank had re-margined a big loan and asked for $9 million.  Legend filed bankruptcy with an estimated $258 million in assets and $198 million in liabilities.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84885</link><pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2008 16:46:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Bargain Shopping</title><description><![CDATA[As a kid, I used to look forward to Saturday mornings when I?d make the shopping rounds with my father. While there were always things he had to pick up, what he really liked to do was shop for sales. A broker, he could ?unit? price in his head, long before grocery store signs assisted the math-impaired. He loved a bargain, especially on generic merchandise or bulk goods. Needless to say, we had a freezer in the garage.

Our first stop, in deference to me, was often J.J. Newberry, where I?d scour the cut-out bins for decent 10-cent records, while he bought whatever shaving cream was on sale. I learned early the meaning of a nickel sale?no, not everything was a nickel, just the second item when you bought the first at full price. Inventory liquidation sales at consumer electronics stores were, and still are, a favorite?a great opportunity to pick up a piece of stereo equipment you might never use. But you can?t wait to get home and tell your friends about the great bargain you got.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84876</link><pubDate>Tue, 10 Jun 2008 14:48:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Tide Will Eventually Turn</title><description><![CDATA[At some future time, your local market will turn. Buyers will figure that, if they don?t act now, the great deals may be gone. Buyers and sellers alike will be able to visualize the bottom, even before it arrives. Astute builders will be able to sweeten deals enough to compensate for whatever price declines may be left and allay buyer concern.

Even today, you see builders offering enough in discounts and incentives that would pay for another 10 percent decline in new home prices. A new $30,000 car would certainly make up the difference on a $300,000 home. So would a finished basement or sweetened mortgage financing.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84868</link><pubDate>Tue, 03 Jun 2008 14:09:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Impact Fee Relief?Slow in Coming</title><description><![CDATA[As we reported last week, several California communities recently rolled back the impact fees that they charge builders to pay for roads, sewers, and even schools. In an effort to aid builders, on whom they depend to generate new tax revenue, they graciously agreed to wait to collect those fees until construction is complete, rather than get the money upfront when builders file for building permits.

One might take this action as a good omen?California has led the nation in impact fees?but while many local governments are considering impact fee relief, just as many, if not more, are enacting new fees or increasing them. Raleigh, for instance, recently boosted its impact fees from $528 to $1386 for a 2000-square-foot house. Why? Because it was charging less than neighboring cities Cary and Apex. Ft. Worth recently imposed a $2000 impact fee per new home to pay for road improvements. How come? Because everyone else in the Metroplex uses this tool to finance highway construction.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84863</link><pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 15:12:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>All Eyes on the Ball</title><description><![CDATA[You could spend all day reading emails, blogs, and web postings about the state of the home building industry. Maybe you?d learn a thing or two about housing economics, the hot water that other builders are in, or what?s keeping your customer up at night. But you may not gain any wisdom about how to lead your company.

The key to success in today?s market is to maintain your focus on outcomes you can control, like how you treat the people who work for you and how everyone gets their work done. That was the subject of Bob Schottenstein?s remarks at this year?s Builder 100 Conference. They are worth watching.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84858</link><pubDate>Tue, 20 May 2008 14:28:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>End in Sight?</title><description><![CDATA[First Parade Magazine, that bastion of economic analysis, and gossip, tells America in a cover story that it?s a great time to buy a house. Then an editorial writer for the Wall Street Journal lends credibility to the belief by calling an end to the housing downturn. All of which leads one to speculate: Maybe the end is finally in sight.

Even within the industry, consensus appears to be building around reaching bottom late this year or early in 2009, though this thinking seems to be based largely on the notion that the recession must end soon because it?s been going on for so long. Wall Street investors certainly believe something afoot?they have bid up the public builder stocks tracked by Zelman Associates 14 percent since the beginning of the year.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84848</link><pubDate>Tue, 13 May 2008 14:24:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Newsflash: Big Privates Pace the Builder 100</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84835</link><pubDate>Tue, 06 May 2008 16:06:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>NVR Actually Makes Money</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84822</link><pubDate>Tue, 29 Apr 2008 14:50:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Homeownership Rate Takes Big Fall</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84792</link><pubDate>Tue, 22 Apr 2008 15:06:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Damned If You Do, Damned If You Don?t</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84763</link><pubDate>Tue, 15 Apr 2008 14:42:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Streets of Maricopa</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84748</link><pubDate>Tue, 08 Apr 2008 14:13:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Good Time to Buy?</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84727</link><pubDate>Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:17:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Price Points</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84694</link><pubDate>Tue, 25 Mar 2008 11:54:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Price Protection</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84655</link><pubDate>Tue, 18 Mar 2008 14:51:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The New Builder Online</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84636</link><pubDate>Tue, 11 Mar 2008 15:04:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Built-In Savings</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84604</link><pubDate>Tue, 04 Mar 2008 14:10:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Reading Between the Numbers</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84603</link><pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2008 16:25:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Strength at the Top</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84602</link><pubDate>Tue, 19 Feb 2008 16:23:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Calculated Gambles</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84601</link><pubDate>Tue, 05 Feb 2008 15:19:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Swimming Upstream</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84424</link><pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 14:49:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Fed Takes Bold Action</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84423</link><pubDate>Tue, 22 Jan 2008 14:48:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Show Me the Way</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=84162</link><pubDate>Tue, 15 Jan 2008 17:04:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Fighting Shape</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=82354</link><pubDate>Tue, 08 Jan 2008 16:14:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Plan of Attack</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=79932</link><pubDate>Wed, 26 Dec 2007 10:29:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title> Is the Consumer Media to Blame for Housing?s Problems?</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=77914</link><pubDate>Tue, 18 Dec 2007 16:59:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Prices--How Low Can They Go?</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=75936</link><pubDate>Tue, 11 Dec 2007 16:15:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Builders: The Squeeze Is On</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=74402</link><pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 14:57:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Financial Whipsaws</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=72339</link><pubDate>Tue, 27 Nov 2007 08:34:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Protect the Keys</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=70767</link><pubDate>Tue, 20 Nov 2007 09:54:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>No More Back to Basics</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=69127</link><pubDate>Tue, 13 Nov 2007 15:43:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Incredible Shrinking House</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=64643</link><pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2007 16:39:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Best Laid Plans</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=62547</link><pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2007 15:41:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Apartment World</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=60594</link><pubDate>Tue, 16 Oct 2007 15:01:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Show of Restraint</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=58148</link><pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2007 15:58:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Against the Grain</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=55441</link><pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 14:22:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Glass Half Full</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=54169</link><pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 15:25:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Let?s Make a Deal</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=52003</link><pubDate>Tue, 18 Sep 2007 14:01:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Waiting Game</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=48668</link><pubDate>Tue, 11 Sep 2007 15:18:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Would a Fed Rate Cut Really Help Housing?</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=46150</link><pubDate>Thu, 06 Sep 2007 14:48:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Bush's Response: On the Right Track</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=45211</link><pubDate>Tue, 04 Sep 2007 15:25:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>The Old College Try</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=38803</link><pubDate>Tue, 28 Aug 2007 12:54:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Good News</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=26564</link><pubDate>Tue, 21 Aug 2007 11:53:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Covering the News</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=24363</link><pubDate>Tue, 07 Aug 2007 15:53:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Bloody Week in July</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=23410</link><pubDate>Tue, 31 Jul 2007 15:26:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Unaffordable Housing</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=21617</link><pubDate>Tue, 17 Jul 2007 12:49:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Success Stories</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=20665</link><pubDate>Tue, 10 Jul 2007 14:34:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Much Ado About Household Formations</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=19889</link><pubDate>Tue, 03 Jul 2007 13:33:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Home Prices: Data v. Reality</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=18280</link><pubDate>Tue, 26 Jun 2007 14:10:00 GMT</pubDate><author>bthompson</author></item><item><title>Every Data Point Tells a Story</title><description><![CDATA[]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=17426</link><pubDate>Tue, 19 Jun 2007 16:34:00 GMT</pubDate><author>kgustafson</author></item><item><title>Calling the Bottom</title><description><![CDATA[Several economists made headlines in recent days by calling the bottom of the housing market later this year. Most analysts, though, think it won't be until next year that things start to "look up" again. And everyone seems to agree that the ride back up will be slow and not without pain.

Among the optimists are Mark Vitner and Dave Seiders, chief economists at Wachovia and NAHB, respectively. Speaking at our Builder 100 conference last month, they said we may hit bottom in the last quarter of this year. Vitner thinks the potential negative impact of ARM resets has been overstated. Most of these mortgages, he said, have already been refinanced. And Seiders thinks we'll get a shot in the arm from strong household formations and job growth.

If history is any guide, recovery may come later. Housing downturns typically average 22 months, and we're only about 14 months into this one. The average starts decline during these periods has been 38 percent, according to a Wachovia analysis. We'd have to see continued weakening this year to reach that level.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=16311</link><pubDate>Tue, 12 Jun 2007 15:19:00 GMT</pubDate><author>kgustafson</author></item><item><title>Field Intelligence</title><description><![CDATA[Two years ago, I asked a panel of public builder CEOs at our Builder 100 conference whether private builders still enjoyed any advantages over them. With their stocks near record highs, they were reluctant to name a single one, not even a deeper knowledge of local terrain, which might translate into being in a better position to take advantage of local opportunities and spot market weaknesses.

A panel of much more humble public generals at last week's conference, though, admitted that the local intelligence they were getting from division presidents a year and a half ago about signs of impending trouble was less than sterling. Little wonder, considering that these managers were typically compensated to ratchet up volume and whet Wall Street's unslakeable thirst for growth. This management structure, it seems, became a big disadvantage.

By comparison, a panel of large private builders this year concluded that, with their tighter rein on operations, they were able to spot signs of the downturn early, streamline operations, and divest land. Moreover, they pointed out that their conservative financial structure prevented them from making many risky deals in the first place.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=16312</link><pubDate>Tue, 29 May 2007 15:20:00 GMT</pubDate><author>kgustafson</author></item><item><title>Instant Gratification</title><description><![CDATA[Building spec homes certainly made a ton of sense three years ago, when there were more buyers than homes to satisfy them. Today's consumer expects instant gratification, and gets it with nearly every other purchase. I've always found it amazing that people will wait months, even years in the case of big customs, for their homes to be delivered.

All the data indicates that a ton more speculative building was going on than any builder would own up to. Plenty of motivation was provided by a desire to attract investor buyers and pump up quarterly results. With prices rising every week, it was also possible to make more money on a spec than a pre-sale, because you could keep any gains in appreciation during construction.

Those days, of course, are ancient history. We have a glut of specs on the market today--some intentional, others the result of cancellations--and very little pricing power. We'll have to burn through this standing inventory before most local markets normalize.]]></description><link>http://www.builderonline.com/blogs/postdetails.aspx?BlogId=thompsonsblog&amp;postId=16313</link><pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2007 15:38:00 GMT</pubDate><author>kgustafson</author></item></channel></rss>

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