Big Builder Online recently surveyed its readers about how low median new-home prices will go and when the nation will see a pricing "bottom."
Respondents were mixed on where the median new-home price might settle in at the bottom, with 25% of respondents each predicting $195,000 to $200,000, $190,000 to $195,000, and less than $190,000. However, 20.8% said they think it will be more likely in the $200,000-to-$205,000 range, and 4.2% have predicted the bottom at $205,000 to $209,000.
Regarding the timing, half of the respondents said they think the nation will see the pricing bottom in the fourth quarter of 2009, while one-quarter of the respondents have predicted the first quarter of 2010. Others are lessoptimistic: 16.7% estimated the pricing bottom in the second half of 2010, while 8.3% said it won't be until 2011 or beyond.
As new-home prices continue to decline, the majority of respondents--58.3%-- said this will cause builders to lose market share due to outlying, less valuable land positions. However, 20.8% of respondents said the price decline will allow builders to gain a competitive advantage due to the buying scale.